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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask DrBob -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Drbob512 who wrote (1851)	8/26/2000 11:53:52 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 100058

Here is my take for what it's worth. It may not be much since no one can truly accurately predict the future. The Nasdaq is due for a rally on volume. The fear here is that we are already close to the top end of a very limited trading range. Summer is nearly over and many people are not only hoping for but expecting a rally after Labor Day. The FED is definitely not going to raise rates again and will most likely lower interest rates after the election because the economy is already showing signs of slowing on big ticket items due to higher interest rates. Can the Nasdaq rally based on expectations for lower interest rates in say 4 months? Sure it can but if the economy doesn't continue to put out numbers that could be equated with a soft landing then we might very well see the NYSE lose some steam at the same time as we see a limited rally in the Nasdaq. The NYSE contains a greater number of the stocks whose earnings will be effected by the decline in durable goods sales, new home buying and an overall slowing economy. The Nasdaq on the other hand contains a larger number of beat up technology stocks whose earnings growth potential has already been trimmed to much more fair value levels. Lets assume I'm right and economic numbers come in a little worse than expected but the FED has its hands tied until after the election before rates can be lowered.... The Nasdaq can rally but only so far until the FED makes it clear that interest rates must be lowered to stimulate economic growth. Basically I think we have another 3 to 4 months of trading in a range on the Nasdaq with an upward trend and no test of previous lows while the NYSE is challenged by the slowing of the economy and no clear statements from Mr. Greenspan that interest rates are indeed coming down. Great thread! RTS

To: Drbob512 who wrote (1851)	8/27/2000 2:13:56 AM
From: Sharck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 100058

Hey Doc, Hope I can make some contributions and also would appreciate you dropping by our new site from time to time... Subject 36700, Lata... Sharck

To: Drbob512 who wrote (1851)	8/27/2000 7:42:21 AM
From: longdong_63	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 100058

DrBob...hahn23 could be right on the DOW though...especially with the techs getting ready to heat up. A scenario that could play out is money flowing out of the DOW and into the NAZ as a safety net....the "diamond DOW" has been immune so far but as Led Zepplin once said, "Your time is gonna come"...LOL!! Just hope the NAZ doesn't get dragged down by it.