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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kech who wrote (2460)	8/27/2000 4:20:16 PM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 196562

Tom, << My sprintpcs dealer won't even set up a sample notebook attached to a phone as modem in the store >> There is a dilemma here for Sprint, Verizon, AWE, VoiceStream. They really want data to pay, and with a nicely bundled rate plan <10¢/minute, the nice slow connect of cdma WAP at 14.4 kbps suits their purposes, and optimized data from a server like Proxinet, defeats their purpose. The more data (or the faster it's delivered) the more revenue they should receive. Us, we want to pay $20/month unlimited like we have been paying our ISP for several years now, and if its really swift (xDSL speed), perhaps a tad more. When Verizon offers 1xEV-DO (HDR) I'll be one of the first with an HDR modem or PDA or whatever (anything but a traditional phone with today's MMI ... PROVIDED that the rate plan is justifiable in my eyes or my companies. For the carriers, it's how to get data to pay. Topical Article on a related subject below: >> U.S.: FALLING INTO MOBILE GAP? news@2direct August 24, 2000 Most U.S. corporations are woefully unprepared to go wireless, according to a study of Fortune 1000 companies’ e-business plans. The research, conducted by TNS Intersearch for e-business consultancy Proxicom Inc., found that 52 percent of companies believe wireless transactions are "still at least five years away." But numerous studies have predicted fast growth for the wireless Internet and that mobile-commerce services will follow suit. Wireless research firm Ovum expects global mobile ‘Net users to grow from the current six million to close to 500 million by 2005. However, m-commerce is not without challenges: Fears of privacy and security have created speed bumps to mass adoption in the United States and other countries, as well as a lack of consumer awareness of the services. << - Eric -

To: kech who wrote (2460)	8/27/2000 5:47:22 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 196562

Tom, I agree with what you wrote about the trick being timing. As you say, raising royalties too early and the inefficient market would cause serious delays [if not killing CDMA entirely]. Any earlier than post-Ericy capitulation would probably not have been tenable. At that time there was what seemed serious moaning and the gap between GSM and CDMA was not huge. OneTel actually installed a new GSM network in Australia and even now, China is continuing with GSM in great strides though that has got a lot to do with the USA bombing the Chinese embassy in Belgrade. That bombing will give China pause over Taiwan. It was allegedly a mistake [which makes one wonder just how incompetent the military can be] and I suppose it was. In the short term, it was a disaster for Q! and CDMA. If China had not been bombed by the USA, CDMA would have been loading up in China in 1999. Unicom would be heading for 10 million subscribers now. Perversely, it might help in the long run by making China realize just how violent the USA is and persuade China not to do anything precipitate over Taiwan. Everyone knows that when UN soldiers set up shop, you can push them around, tie them to stakes, shove their tanks out of the way with your ones [Israel did that] with impunity. But USA Marines are not noted for being simpering. They are free-fire zone fan club members of the old school! So Taiwan will enter CDMA in a hurry rather than be embroiled in a war with China. China will get going soon too! One or two years delay is okay in the interests of avoiding wars. Desert Storm showed China how an army can be obliterated in days! Or even hours! And that was a decade ago - the USA will have much-improved systems now. Back on the timing of royalty increases! It was a little while ago now that Q! issued the warning that rates were going up. You are right that a big jump would simply cut off newcomers [Nokia]. If Q! told everyone it's now 100%, Nokia would not be able to sell anything much, so they would not be able to enter the market, which would slow adoption and innovation. The existing low-royalty companies would enjoy a protected market against the biggest seller of subscriber devices. That would not be good for Q! So a gradual increase [starting at about 15%] is probably the best solution. Any new technology would be charged at a higher rate, though the newer technology is not so critical so would not enjoy the 100% rate in any event. Though HDR is starting to look as though it should be a 100% technology! Maybe full-blown 3G should be too since it is so problematic. It's frustrating! I suppose the outcome will be Q! charges newcomers something like 20% [similar to the VW40 charge]. HDR should earn a higher rate. Maybe they should move to a bit-charge [1c per gigabyte or something]. The governments have got their greedy paws on a monster windfall which efficient markets would have delivered to Q! as the creator of the spectrum efficiency. I guess that's how the cookie crumbles. I've raved for about 3 years that Q! should be increasing royalties to GSM rates. In any event, I will NOT be pricing any royalty reductions into my Q! share value. I expect royalty income to increase, not reduce and to do it sooner rather than later. I agree WWeb won't be universal for the best part of a decade. It will need to be very, very user-friendly with none, one or two buttons and intuitive controls. Maybe voice control, but a quiet method would be much better. But we all have to know stuff and nobody likes being lost. Anita[TM] will sell to 99% of people. By charging the right royalty rate [to match spectrum availability] WWeb would NOT cost twice or three times as much. It's like a see-saw = the spectrum price goes down if the input costs go up. So if Q! reduces royalty rates, the WWeb prices won't go down, the spectrum prices will go up. Or the service providers will pocket the decrease. In a spectrum-constrained world, they have no incentive to pass a royalty or spectrum discount to their subscribers. Some say the governments should give the spectrum away, foolishly thinking this would cause cheaper WWeb services. They are wrong. The service providers would charge what the market would bear in a spectrum-constrained world. If governments gave spectrum away to their buddies or by lucky draw, and Q! cut royalties to zero, prices of WWeb minutes would not reduce at all because there would still be a spectrum shortage and service providers would charge whatever they needed to to balance supply and demand. With spectrum now sold in several countries, the race is on to jam as many bits and pixels through as fast as possible. Q! is off to a very good start. BlueKite should help. Metawave. Bluetooth. HDR. "Your Price Is" YPI variable pricing [for always available, cheap, fast and high quality service]. Mqurice