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Strategies & Market Trends : Screening for Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: B.K.Myers who wrote (3)	8/27/2000 5:36:53 PM
From: B.K.Myers	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 66

Sun Microsystems Inc Sun Microsystems Inc appeared on my Fastest Growing Companies Screen. I currently have a small position in SUNW and enjoyed its recent run-up. But I have been concerned that it might be getting ahead of itself and could be vulnerable to a pull back. First I looked at Investor’s Business Daily (http://www.investors.com/) for their ratings. Here is what I found. Overall 99 Technical 99 Fundamental 93 Attractiveness 97 Group Technical 77 Group Fundamental 61 EPS 98 RS 94 Grp RS B SMR A Acc/Dist A Sun Microsystems is included in IBD’s “Computer-Manufacturers” Industry Group. This group has suffered a slight pullback since earlier this year and could be going through a cyclical phase. Fundamentally, Sun seems to be hitting on all cylinders. Sales and EPS are both up as are their growth rates. Their balance sheet still looks solid. A good Return on Equity (TTM) of 31.15 and Return on Assets (TTM) of 16.34 shows continue good management. In mid July, Sun announced good earnings, a two for one stock split and the stock broke up on strong volume. It has continued to perform well, rising about 25% from the breakout price (approx. $100) to its current price of $124.75, but volume has been weakening. A couple of things concern me though. The recently announced stock split is the second split in the past twelve months and third in the past two years. Technically, SUNW appears to be currently overbought. Along with the declining volume during the recent run-up, this overbought condition could indicate that SUNW might be set for a pullback. Any weakness in the general market or in the Computer-Manufacturers Industry group could result in a decline in SUNW. I will have to watch the market and the industry for any weaknesses that could affect SUNW. Meanwhile, I will continue to cautiously hold my shares. B.K.

To: B.K.Myers who wrote (3)	8/29/2000 4:00:08 PM
From: atacama	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 66

Hello - Just found your board & only just going through your results. You've put in quite a bit of effort, not only in the screens but in the presentation and I appreciate it. I am more TA oriented, but like the idea of fundamentals backing up a good chart, especially for IRA funds (more stability... hopefully ... for a longer term hold). A comment on the P/Es. While they are relative, they also have to be checked relative to themselves as well as to their peers. So, for instance, a TIF @ 42 has a P/E of 37 compared to its industry of 26. Also, its 5-yr P/E average is 25. So, relatively speaking, it is at this point somewhat overextended and a buyer would want to wait, from a fundamental point of view, to buy. That's one thought for now. I'll be back again... atacama

To: B.K.Myers who wrote (3)	8/30/2000 11:23:34 AM
From: jbe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 66

Great thread, B.K.! I, too, screen for GARP (growth at a reasonable price) stocks -- although I do try to find ones that meet my investment objectives, not my investment objections! <ggg> In fact, I credit the screens (not my stock market savvy, which I can lay no claim to) for the excellent performance so far this year of my individually, hand-picked stocks, which are up 30%. I am sure there are plenty of SI posters who can boast of a far more eye-popping performance, but still, 30% is much better than the 8% average my funds have given me to date this year, and still better than the showing of the major market indexes. And bear in mind that the overwhelming majority of my hand-picked stocks have moderate or very low P/Es. So, I'm content with 30%. :-) For screening, I have always used Telescan's Pro-Search (on Wall Street City). I have never found anything that could remotely compare with it (although now I will of course check out those search engines you cite that I have not tried). You can also check out their "custom" screens (the ones they construct for you), although I prefer the Pro-Search screens you construct according to your own criteria. The problem is that you have to pay for the service -- close to $30.00 a month. (Although maybe you can sign up for one free month.) I'd be happy to post a couple of sample screens here on this thread, if that should prove possible. I have a couple of questions, too, but they can wait until I have mastered all the info. already here. Thanks for starting this thread. jbe

To: B.K.Myers who wrote (3)	9/2/2000 11:18:55 PM
From: B.K.Myers	Respond to of 66

Fastest Growing Companies – MSN This screen is essentially the same Fastest Growing Companies screen that I ran earlier, but I ran this one using MNS Money Central Investors Finder: moneycentral.msn.com I attempted to create the same criteria that I used in the earlier screen, but because of difference between the two screen engines, I had to use some different variables. The original screen criteria and results can be found at: Message 14282877 Here are the criteria that I used in the original screen: 6 Month EPS Growth >= 35 6 Month EPS Growth > 1 Year EPS Growth 1 Year EPS Growth > 5 Year EPS Growth 5 Year EPS Growth >= 25 1 Year Revenue Growth > 5 Year Revenue Growth 1 Year Revenue Growth > 10 1 Year EPS Growth >= 1 Year Revenue Growth Long Term Growth Projection > Previous Long Term Growth Projection ROE >= 15 Average Relative Quarterly Performance for past 4 Quarters >= 1 On August 27, 2000, the original screen identified these companies: Symbol Company Name Price ROE Trail P/E EPS Growth (1 Yr.) SEIC SEI Investments Co 65.50 99.0 55.2 54.8 FWRD Forward Air Corp 43.50 53.1 62.1 67.6 SUNW Sun Microsystems Inc 124.75 41.4 99.0 66.6 PLXS Plexus Corp 142.50 40.6 99.0 60.9 MLT Mitel Corp 23.38 35.3 99.0 55.9 NT Nortel Networks Corp 82.38 20.9 99.0 48.3 AHAA Alpha Industries Corp 40.13 17.6 58.2 90.4 TIF Tiffany & Co 42.06 15.5 28.1 78.4 ---------------------------------------------------------- Here are the criteria that I used for MSN Money Central screen: EPS Growth Qtr Vs Qtr >= 35 EPS Growth Qtr Vs Qtr >= EPS Growth Year Vs Year EPS Growth Year Vs Year >= 5-Year Earnings Growth 5-Year Earnings Growth >= 25 Rev Growth Year Vs Year >= 5-Year Revenue Growth Rev Growth Year Vs Year >= 10 EPS Growth Year Vs Year >= Rev Growth Year Vs Year Earnings Estimate Increased Since <In The Last Year> Return on Equity >= 15 This criteria differs from the original screen criteria is the following ways:  The original screen used 6 Months EPS Growth. I used Qtr Vs Qtr EPS Growth for this screen.  I did not use the 1-Year Revenue Growth >= 10, but it was not needed.  I used Earnings Estimate Increase instead of the change in Long Term Growth Projections. On Friday, September 01, 2000, this gave me the following results: 1-YR 5-Yr 1-Yr 5-Yr EPS Earning Rev Rev Symbol Company Name Price ROE P/E EPS Growth Growth Growth Growth SNDK SanDisk Corporation 83.5 31.2 24.7 0.43 125.4 40.57 81.9 39.57 SIVB Silicon Valley Bancshares 57.63 28.4 15.2 1.23 80.6 33.96 37.2 31.97 CHCS Chico's FAS, Inc. 39 36.8 31.9 0.88 70.3 67.26 45.3 24.79 RCII Rent-A-Center, Inc. 32.94 34.5 12.3 1.74 139.5 30.28 75 71.11 MCRL Micrel, Incorporated 76.44 27.5 128.7 0.41 113.4 39.7 38.9 36.89 CDWC CDW Computer Centers, Inc. 73.5 24.5 51.4 1.11 49.1 41.77 47.7 38.38 TLGD Tollgrade Communications, Inc. 111.19 21.3 80.2 0.89 51.4 30.79 32 26.5 FWRD Forward Air Corporation 45.88 29.1 45.4 0.76 56.9 32.92 31 2.92 TIF Tiffany & Co. 41.63 22.4 35.9 0.98 61.7 29.95 25 14.68 ALTR Altera Corporation 64.81 24.8 84.7 0.54 45.1 28.43 27.9 21.95 KCP Kenneth Cole Productions, Inc. 44.06 25.7 31.4 1.19 52.8 25.37 41.2 25.97 Only two companies from the first screen showed up on this screen, Forward Air Corporation (FWRD) and Tiffany & Co (TIF). I believe the reason for the difference was mostly related to changing the 6 Months EPS Growth to a Quarter vs. Quarter EPS Growth criteria. Using the Earnings Estimate Increase instead of the Long Term Growth Projections changes might have also had an effect. I prefer the 6 Months EPS Growth rate because it covers a longer period, 6 months as opposed to 3 months. The Quarter vs. Quarter growth could be distorted by an unusually poor or good quarter. Since I was using different screening engines, I was curious about the consistency of the data. Looking at the two companies that appeared on both screens, FWRD & TIF; there are some extreme variances between their numbers. Obviously these screens are not getting their data from the same place. Let’s see what I find if I check Silicon Investors and ETrade for these values. Symbol/Criteria Market Player Money Central ETrade Silicon Investors FWRD: Price 43.50 45.88 42.25 42.25 ROE 53.1 29.1 36.16 36.16 P/E 62.1 45.4 45.92 46.23 1-Yr EPS Growth 67.6 56.9 50.33 41.18 TIF: Price 42.06 41.63 42.31 42.31 ROE 15.5 22.4 23.94 23.94 P/E 28.1 35.9 36.48 36.54 1-Yr EPS Growth 78.4 61.7 60.17 32.96 NOTE (this data was gathered on different days, up to one week apart) At least ETrade and Silicon Investors agree on the price, ROE and P/E (accounting for rounding), but look at the differences in 1-Yr EPS Growth. Also notice that MSN Money Central and E*Trade report essentially the same figures for all criteria for TIF but slightly different ROE and 1-Yr EPS Growth for FWRD. The figures from Market Player are substantially different from figures reported from the three other sources. Obviously the quality of the source of the screen’s data substantially affects the screen results. B.K.