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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: groomerdude who wrote (14350)	8/28/2000 9:03:54 AM
From: Sam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 60323

More thoughts on the semi cycle, from the Channeling thread. If Mr. Chen is right, Sandisk's stake in UMC will grow quite nicely over the next decade. TMC would also be a nice investment. Taiwan analysts see chip boom peaking in 2003 TAIPEI, Aug 28 (Reuters) - Taiwan technology research firm Topology Research said on Monday it expected new sources of demand from communications and personal electronics to drive the current semiconductor boom until early 2003. ``Topology can boldly estimate that even though this wave of the semiconductor cycle shows signs of slower growth, it can last until the first half of 2003 if there are no unexpected factors,'' said researcher Vincent Chen. ``Even assuming the worst, it will not end before the second half of 2002, which is broadly what the market expects,'' he told reporters at a briefing. ``No matter if you are talking about communications, PDAs (personal digital assistants) or IAs (Information appliances), there will be a lot of new demand coming out,'' Chen said. Many analysts say a tide of new capacity will cut chip prices as firms switch production lines to use 12-inch silicon wafers from eight-inch ones, so as to yield more chips per wafer. But Chen said the shift to new technology will be slower than expected. He said the new plants were facing a shortage of chipmaking equipment, and the world's only 12-inch facility in mass production -- Infineon's Dresden plant -- had not worked out all the kinks in the new technology. Chen nonetheless said the chip cycle would become less predictable as more and more silicon finds its way into consumer gadgets rather than personal computers, which benefit from relatively stable corporate orders. Downturns in semiconductor cycles were also likely to shorten as more chipmakers gain flexibility by outsourcing production to foundry firms, and shift the risk of building new capacity, Chen said. ``This will make things rather tiring for foundries but the cycle will bottom out faster,'' he added. However, growing orders from firms such as Motorola (NYSE:MOT - news), which traditionally both designs and makes semiconductors, were likely to fuel another 15 years of growth before the foundry sector became mature, he said. Chen predicted foundries could eventually account for 50 percent of world microchip output. The world's two largest chip foundries, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co and United Microelectronics are both based in Taiwan.