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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Mosher who wrote (30596)	8/28/2000 11:23:25 AM
From: Judith Williams	Respond to of 54805

Don Fascinating intersection of ideas. It ties directly into Mike Buckley's notion of building a predictive analytic framework around the "networking" effect. For anyone who wants a good read in this area, highly recommend not just Chaos, but M. Mitchell Waldrop's Complexity: The Emerging Science at the Edge of Order and Chaos, which gets behind the scenes at the Santa Fe Institute.

To: Don Mosher who wrote (30596)	8/28/2000 11:35:11 AM
From: sditto	Respond to of 54805

<<1. If there is not a linear link between risk and reward, then owning a stock exhibiting persistence may be less risky that previously believed.>> Can you help me understand the definition or characteristics of persistence as used in this recommendation?

To: Don Mosher who wrote (30596)	8/28/2000 11:54:40 AM
From: gdichaz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Don: Thanks. This is a major contribution to advancing how each of us deals with the multiple trends and relationships which relate to investing. As you suggest, 'tain't simple. Chaos does seem closer to the mark than "rational" behavior which is obviously false yet the basis for the "economic man". A mix of emotion, rationality and simple random stuff is what the real world seems to be as best we can observe. Much appreciate the depth of research and thought reflected in your post. Look forward to the exercise Mike Buckley has suggested. You have launched that - in spades. Now to put on the thinking cap - hey some rationality might be worth a try ! Best. Cha2

To: Don Mosher who wrote (30596)	8/28/2000 3:11:12 PM
From: johndelvecchio	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

Hi Don, What an excellent post. Thank you for sharing your thoughts on CAS. I recommend to people interested in this stuff to read Complexity by Waldrop. It is a very easy read and talks about CAS and the development of the Santa Fe Institute. There are many interesting characters. Also, the work by W. Brian Arthur on Increasing Returns is very important. I think that Increasing Returns are at the heart of Gorilla success, so understanding the theory helps. Moore does a good job, but you can get more in depth reasoning elsewhere. Also, Rappaport and Mauboussin are coming out with a new book. I pray that it talks in depth about CAPs in a quantitative fashion b/c quite frankly his first report on the subject through CSFB is not very good. It explains the theory but doe not show you how to do a CAP. You have to read Rappaport (the 1998 version) but Rappaport fails to show you how to forecast value drivers. Sooner or later, I will get CAP totally nailed and I will write about it if no one else can put it into terms that the average Joe can understand. I think it is important. Best, John Del Vecchio Investment Research Fool The Motley Fool fool.com