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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (30606)	8/28/2000 12:37:24 PM
From: shamsaee	Respond to of 54805

It has definitely helped in some form to understand why markets move in a specific way.Holding stocks long term in bull markets is probably the best way to achieve incredible returns.I would not say the same thing for bear markets.Given the rate of economic expansion I don't see a slow down in growth or productivity for many years to come and should bode well for long term investors. I think q has finally bottomed and thank the heavens for that.I will go on a limb and predict 200 before end of next year.

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (30606)	8/28/2000 1:50:27 PM
From: Bruce Brown	Respond to of 54805

Our gracious leader wrote: You answered your own question. Keep reading for the next few years. That will cause you to ignore your investments, which will become long term, and you'll do much better. LOL!!!! If it's possible, a big high 5 from this side of the pond to the west coast. This is not to be mistaken at the expense of another, but I'm just supporting the sage advice within. In response to the Intel comments, I worked up a response over at the Fool to someone who trades the semiconductor cycle. I posted this using Intel and Applied Materials as my two 'semiconductor related' issues in hopes he would share how his strategy of trading the cycles had worked for him over the years in comparison to just holding. boards.fool.com Either Intel or Applied Materials, in the example above, would have been good candidates to have in the portfolio while reading books for the past years. That's not to say the future will mirror the past in these two, but surely there are some G&K stocks that will be similar in the future if one takes the time to read and simply 'wait'. BB

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (30606)	8/28/2000 2:00:25 PM
From: BDR	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Warning: another boring post about LTB&H <<That will cause you to ignore your investments, which will become long term, and you'll do much better.>> I noticed that SI has a new feature which you can access when you look at a portfolio. Above the listing of stocks and to the right you will see "$ Evaluate My Portfolio". Click on that and you can ask what the probability is of that portfolio appreciating by X amount in Y years. The default is doubling in 15 years. I used that feature to look at my real (not hypothetical) tech portfolio that I track here on SI. I am heavily weighted in fiberoptics and some G&K's (CSCO,GLW, GMST, JDSU, NT, NTAP, QCOM, SDLI, SEBL, SNDK) and the portfolio does not include the less than 10% I have in cash and the less than 10% I have in energy mutual funds and stocks. Losses from "shiny pebble investing" are, mercifully, not taken into account. The first shares in that portfolio were acquired in July of last year with the bulk being bought in Jan/Feb of this year reflecting my awakening to the benefits of tech and specifically G&K investing. All are up except QCOM (-47%) and overall the portfolio is up 93% after an unusual year, admittedly. So what does the evaluator say the prospects are for this portfolio if I hold long term? According to the evaluator I have a 51% chance of at least doubling the value of my portfolio in 15 years. A double in 15 years implies about a 5% a year compounded return, if I am not mistaken. Pretty safe bet. They must know what they are talking about. The co-founder and Chairman of the company providing the service has a Nobel Prize in Economics. With the "experts" giving discouraging advice like that, no wonder people get impatient and try trading their way to improved returns.