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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marginmike who wrote (2477)	8/28/2000 1:33:19 PM
From: slacker711	Respond to of 197237

Qcom stated 14 million chips last quarter add that to 57 million that comes in arround 71 million which means that there are many chips being used this quarter from last quarters ordering. We need to see current usage to determine if there is a slowdown. The CDG only tracks the total number of CDMA subs....a more useful measure (for Qualcomm investors) would include the number of upgrade buyers. A rough number for the percentage of handset upgrades in a year is 40%. Since the demand picture has been screwed up because of Korea it is tough to get an accurate picture of the number of handsets sold during last quarter. However, just to give an idea of the disparity, I believe that Qualcomm had shipped 90m chipsets by the end of the first quarter....while their were only a total of 57m CDMA subs. Also there is always a surplus of chips shipped during the July and September quarters to fufill demand that will take place during Christmas. Qualcomm specifically stated during the last CC that they hoped to see an upside in NA and LA to offset the Korean subsidy ban. I think that they said that chipset sales should come in around 12-13m but that other markets could offset this. If (big if, for me) these numbers are correct, I believe that these numbers confirm the upside scenario presented during the CC. There is no reason for NA or LA demand to fall-off during the next two quarters. Since I am sceptical of the numbers it is hard for me to forcefully argue the position. However, if demand really went from 2m new subs in NA during the March quarter to 4.5m in the June quarter, it is hard for me to understate how good this is for Qualcomm. I was (still am?) becoming very worried about the new sub numbers that were being released by the various carriers. Slacker