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Technology Stocks : Altaba Inc. (formerly Yahoo) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: john defreitas who wrote (25737)	8/28/2000 7:34:11 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27307

I just saw a cnbc piece where the reporter (the guy with the oval glasses, can't remember his name) said about 60% of yahoo ad revenue comes from dot coms, and is therefore in jeopardy, and there is speculation that yahoo is informing the street that ad revs might be a little light. Yahoo corp denies this. That was the story anyway. I for one don't buy the "yahoo informing the street" rumor, because Blodgett would have been the first guy contacted and he would have issued yet another conflicting opinion by now... the last statement from him had yahoo rising 25% or something for the fall, it wasn't negative anyway. I don't doubt ad revenues are flat to declining though, it seems like I don't see as many as I used to. I'm expecting yahoo's growth numbers to be strong but if advertising revenue is going to be the key component of stock price going forward I can imagine difficulty...

To: john defreitas who wrote (25737)	8/28/2000 8:26:11 PM
From: FR1	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 27307

I talked to some guys at Morgan and they said that if you want to buy into the fear theory, it is based on the fact that a lot of the dot coms are going under and will stiff YHOO for the ad revenue. Also the people that advertise most on the web are new IPO dot coms that must get exposure and the IPO market dried up. IMHO, The cycle is like this: 1) Fed thinks (incorrectly) it may see indirect indicators of possible future inflation based on economic theories (many of which have been proven wrong). 2) Fed is not responsible to anyone and can jack interest rates up anytime they feel like it. No authority is necessary and no punishment is given if they are wrong. 2) Fed jacks up interest rates to over 6% (just to be safe). 3) Everybody gets terrified (7% has always caused a immediate recession). 4) No investor wants to take a chance on anything. IPOs dry up to nothing. Anyone not making money gets hammered. Housing, cars and retail merchants on thin margin drop. 5) Fed says ooops (not in public). 6) Interest hikes stop. 7) Eventually rates go down very slowly. 8) Go back to 1) We are at step 6. Somewhere between 6 and 7 the CMGIs, ICGEs and underwriters start delivering all the IPOs that have been held up while the Feds did their turkey trot around wall street. Becker is saying that she looks at the recent history and sees step 4 where everyone dumped dot coms and IPOs dried up. She decides to extrapolate that 6 months into the future and say that nobody is coming to the rescue. Amazing foresight. Even more amazing is that people believe her. Even the feds don't know what they are going to be doing. IMHO, the IPOs come back. The first wave has already started. ICGE will launch at least 3 (starting next month) before the end of the year and CMGI has promised AltaVista. All these businesses demand internet ads. YHOO has said it will make the numbers for October. The smart thing for a analyst to do is wait until YHOO has their CC in October before downgrading the stock. Becker has stated that she already accepts that YHOO will make October numbers and is looking way beyond that to the end of the year. Like the feds, Becker will suffer no harm when proven wrong. The only wild card I see is the fed. It has no idea of how much havoc it has caused this year without any justifiable proof of infaltion. No idea about how many startups it put down the drain. No remorse and, of course, no punishment for making the wrong decisions. They are like the fire department truck that drives down the street blasting out the windows of all the buildings with their fire hoses. When asked what they are doing, they say "We are being proactive. There may be a fire sometime.". We can un-elect the city officials. Unfortuantely, the fed is a group of unelected economic theoreticians that can do whatever they please. This was never intended. The feds were only to use their power when fire was clearly present because you destroy businesses by raising rates. Alexander G. Bell would go bankrupt under the feds.

To: john defreitas who wrote (25737)	8/29/2000 2:55:18 AM
From: CookiePuss	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27307

Thanks for the post John, I caught her on CNBC as well. Was this the same analyst from Lehman that downgraded YHOO in July? If so, I can't understand why the downgrade given that she said she speaks with the company b4 issuing a report. So what did she misunderstand in July that caused her to write a totally inaccurate report? Also, her neutral rating is partially based on 3Q revs coming in at $275mm instead of $277mm!?!? What the hell. The summer is historically the slowest period for the advertising sector, this should be given to the investment community by now. Anyway, YHOO management issued a statement this evening that said they are comfortable with the guidance they gave on their last conference call so what's her beef? These people are bizarre. I just read a good book written by former DLJ investment bankers called "Monkey Business" that pretty much describes analysts as the bottom feeders of the business. A highly recommended read. It looks like the immediate short term doesn't look good for YHOO. This is the way the analysts want it for whatever reason.