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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (37052)	8/28/2000 10:00:47 PM
From: Jeffrey D	Respond to of 70976

LEX COLUMN: Semiconductors LEX COLUMN 99% match; Financial Times ; 28-Aug-2000 12:00:00 am ; 227 words Semiconductors What is more volatile than the price of a computer chip? The price of a computer chip maker. Semiconductor stocks have whipped around this year, buffetted by fears of slowing demand and a price war on one hand, and capacity shortages on the other. The sector, as measured by the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, is 13 per cent off its March high. Industry momentum, however, is improving. Demand is strong, even too strong, particularly for flash memory chips used in mobile phones and D-Rams for personal computers. And while talk of adding capacity has mushroomed in response - the big Japanese manufacturers are all ramping up their expansion plans - Merrill Lynch estimates that total capital spending of Dollars 53bn (Pounds 35bn) this year still amounts to only a quarter of industry revenues, compared to 31 per cent at the last peak in 1996. As a result, manufacturers will not be able to open enough new capacity in 2000, which should drive up prices for the rest of the year. Merrill has just raised its forecast for the industry's 2000 revenue growth from 32 to 40 per cent, largely due to higher prices. As always, the chip makers are sowing the seeds of their next downfall through reckless over-expansion. But for now the the problem is simply fulfilling orders. And while Intel is at an all-time peak following a rash of new product news, the sector's current robust health is not reflected in stocks like ST Microelectronics, Texas Instruments and National Semiconductor, which are still between 20 and 50 per cent below their March levels. Copyright © The Financial Times Limited

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (37052)	8/28/2000 10:35:55 PM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

"I think it is just a matter of time before computers replace humans as the drivers on our highways." I hope not. Some of my best friends are software engineers, and I'm here to tell you, they DO make mistakes. When I worked in the industry, one of our customers came up with a spec saying that we had to ship our systems with bug-free software. I don't know how the sales people handled it, but engineers know that there is no such thing, and can never be. Another problem with that scenario is that the decisions and risk assessments are effectively being done by the software engineer, who may feel bad if a driver gets killed, but does not have as much to lose as the driver and passengers. When I ride in a car (or an airplane, for that matter), I want the person making the decisions to have as much at risk as I do. "People who scoff at this should note that the current generation of 777's can land themselves even with one engine failure(note they only have 2 engines!). How many pilot's could do the same?" Almost all of them, actually. Pilots of multiengine airplanes are routinely trained and tested on landing with one engine out, and yes, that includes on planes with only two engines. If the pilot cannot demonstrate this, he or she is not given the multiengine license. And airline pilots are tested on this frequently.