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To: jbhernandez who wrote (123)8/29/2000 9:34:42 AM
From: adairm  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164
 
I hardly think the IBD writers were pulled from the sports desks!

But, I would agree with the comments that volume is relative.

In one of my comments about BRCM's recent advance, I mentioned I thought volume was light, but I also mentioned that volume is traditionally light in late August. A lot of professional Wall Streeters take vacation then, and just aren't participating in the markets.

The Worden Bros. are right, this stuff is Art, not Science!

Adairm



To: jbhernandez who wrote (123)8/29/2000 6:45:03 PM
From: -Mad-Jon  Respond to of 164
 
jbhernandez - That was a useful Q & R; I disagree with the premise of the questioner. O'Neil is very clear, in his books - and in the markets column of the paper - that volume is a relative thing. ("A confirmation rally is an advance of 1% or more on volume greater than the day before.)

There have been numerous days this summer when the advance of the market has been on lighter volume than the previous days, leading IBD to advise caution. The runup to the July short-term peak contained many such advances - to be followed by a rollover of the market following options expiration; maybe an overly cautious investor missed some of the up move from following the advice, but the market was still demonstrably unfirm, and the retracement would have been avoided.

Tom Costello, Bob Pisani and Maria Bartiromo, plus various technical hacks at the brokerages who are regularly paraded in front of the cameras - are the principal offenders in the "but the volume is light" camp; they don't tend to speak about volume in relative terms; recently, however, Costello, to his credit, has been addressing the question from a year-over-year perspective. That still doesn't address my interest, which would be: how does it compare to yesterday's volume, and the ten-day average.

Regards,
Jon