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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (30668)	8/29/2000 9:05:33 AM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 54805

UF, << The cyclical nature of the semiconductor business reflects itself in a 4 year cycle, not a seasonal one >> You know semiconducters better than I, so you are no doubt right. I hate that word, "allocation" that occurs in the cycle we are in, but I guess good for investors. At the end of last year John Markman had some interesting articles on the seasonal nature of stocks related to their industries (including semi's), and as I recall was having some mechanical screens for portfolio rotation constructed for same. If I find the article(s), I'll post the semi related stuff. - Eric -

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (30668)	8/29/2000 1:04:01 PM
From: Apollo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

cyclical nature of the semiconductor business reflects itself in a 4 year cycle, not a seasonal one. If the current cycle follows true to course, we should see excess capacity in 2001 followed by decreasing average selling prices and lower profit margins as manufacturers fight to maintain their market share. Thanx for the perspective. My WAG is that the growth of the Internet will change historic cyclicity. As the Internet grows, the need for internet access devices grows, and the need for servers grows. I think chip sales will remain strong for the next few years. To expect a downturn based on history would require that there either will be an economic downturn in 2001-2002, or growth in the Internet will slow. I don't anticipate either. Best, Apollo