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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Paul Shread who wrote (28638)8/29/2000 1:11:11 PM
From: dennis michael patterson  Respond to of 42787
 
Paul, my last message links correctly. I fixed it.



To: Paul Shread who wrote (28638)8/29/2000 2:09:26 PM
From: dennis michael patterson  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 42787
 
Sold my puts at 4 1/8, bought at 5 7/8. Now that I have capitulated, the market can go down. ggggggg



To: Paul Shread who wrote (28638)8/29/2000 2:14:06 PM
From: Robert Graham  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 42787
 
Interesting stuff I am picking up on today. Reveals a better method for filtering trades using indicators from different but related markets. Traders use the trend in the TRIN and divergences in the TICK to help evaluate the price action they are seeing in the market. As an aside, I do not understand why the Pristine book did not mention this basic fact about these indicators. Anyways, I found an even more worthwhile use for them together that does give good signals. I find it is best to learn how to *anticipate* the movements of the TICK and TRIN. And when they are at a juncture for such a move, and the setup on the SPOO is ready to resolve in a direction that would be supported by movements in the TICK and TRIN, this trade turns out to have a higher probability of a good move. After the setup resolves, I first expect to see the TICK validate the move. Then I expect the TRIN to compliment the move by putting in a movement in the appropriate direction. Better yet if it continues as the setup continues to resolve. Also I find a complimentary pattern on the ND futures is worth noting, and by itself can provide for a better than normal resolution of the setup that is being traded with the SPOO. If all three line up, TICK and TRIN and ND charts, this is the best "intermarket" confirmation of a setup on the SPOO. This happened earlier today when the SPOO moved down this morning after a touch of its 20 EMA on the 5-min chart. This approach takes the use of the TICK and TRIN to a new level, and helps to identify setups before the rest of the crowd comes in to help push price in the same direction.

Now there are indications to be found with the SPOO itself that can be used to filter for a better instance of a setup that will have a higher probability in resolving well. I also working on this aspect of trading and inthe end hope to have a collection of "indicators" that I can use to filter potential trades. This and what I have stated in the above paragraphs related to confirming signals is very important in congested markets even though they have their application in more directional markets.

It is all a matter of assessing and responding to probable outcomes. The careful assessment of probabilities becomes even more difficult but more important when the broader probability in the market has turned more against the trader, as in congested markets. This can only be made up for by either a careful assessment of probabilities on a trade by trade basis, or understanding when it is important not to trade at all.

FWIW.

Bob Graham