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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lrrp who wrote (2542)	8/29/2000 3:18:40 PM
From: Webster	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 196958

What will it take for a large Telecom Company outside of the USA to adopt? The adoption of cdma to date has been by telecom's who have implemented cdma with new spectrum or converted to cdma from analog. These telecom companies had a choice in technologies and GSM was not selected. As a result more than 100 million cdma devices (and growing) have been sold. In addition these cdma service operators have a distinct competitive advantage over all other carriers (specifically GSM Operators) as they move to the wireless internet. This advantage comes in many forms including: costs, speed, flexibility, applications and more. This advantage is over service operators who use GSM, TDMA (AWE) and those (AWE) who still run analog. We have already seen announcements (Lucent and QCOM) of tests of cdma in Eastern Europe who run 450mhz. This is happening right under the nose of NOK, ERICY and EU operators. This is an important milestone as these service operators can migrate to cdma and HDR which will allow them to offer high speed wireless internet services. Regarding what will it take for a large telecom outside of USA who is a GSM service Operator? We have already heard from analyst Alex Cena who made comments about EU service operators and their concerns about the transition to 3g and the advantage cdma operators have with a steady incremental upgrade to 3g performance (1xmc and 1xEV/HDR). Now if I were a GSM service operator I would not be announcing any of my strategy to my competition. Look at VOD, they have not said volumes about their intention and when they do speak it is broad and leaves the interpretation open for discussion. If I were a GSM operator, I would watch for the development of handsets and other wireless internet devices as well as Spinco's delivery of 1x asic delivery and 1xev field trials. They (EU GSM Operators) all know their alternatives which include 1xEV/HDR. No one (the press) is talking about this as a migration path to 3G. NOK surely won't mention it. I would image we will see the GSM operators implement GPRS and then migrate to 1XEV/HDR. NOK, ERICY and the old guard will offer "fair trade" and "submission for competition" to international law as their next strategy - for the good of the people. Once Spinco has delivered 1xmc and 1xEv, GSM operators will take notice and then we will see movement. The migration path (GPRS,EDGE,W-cdma) offered by NOK and ERICY and the IRP pool gang won't be such a bargain - that's why they are planning their ipr pool strategy - to limit competition - a 1985 strategy in 2000. I would look for VOD and then NTT who will both claim their alliance to w-cdma..but will implement 1xEV as an "interim" step - the rest will be history. FWIW. Thanks Web.