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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jim_p who wrote (71944)	8/29/2000 3:33:17 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Did anyone see the SI article about $40 oil? Quite a few folks from this thread were used. siliconinvestor.com Pretty good read, but they didn't really include what makes this bull run different imho. I sent this PM. I'm sure this is all review for everyone here, but I thought I'd include it in case I missed any points. What makes this bull run DIFFERENT than past ones in the energy sector: 1) OPEC has very little excess supply. Some traders doubt whether OPEC has the extra supply to simply bring prices back below $30. 2) Supply/demand nearly equal. The 70's energy crisis was purely a supply phenon., but this one involves both supply and demand. 3) Oil service industry and Majors decimated from $12 oil. Only now are they beginning to open their purse strings. Non-OPEC production increases will not happen any time soon. Lack of workers, equipment in the oil service sector. 4) The simultaneous bull markets in BOTH oil and natural gas. Usually one or the other is high, but not both. 5) Iraq's production (a major producer) has been hurt tremendously by the Gulf War. When you don't get the parts and don't perform routine maintenance on your wells you get production declines. By some estimates this damage is now permanent. 6) Non-OPEC production has been in the decline stages for the last 10 years. We'll be lucky to maintain our share of the market let alone grow it. In a word...depletion. 7) Information technology, EPA air standards, new power generation and the internet are ensuring that the long term prices in NG will stay high for some time to come. This is the real deal. We don't have an energy crisis yet...but the wolf is at the door (as Simmons would say). Go and read the article comparing 1973 to 2000 by Matt Simmons. Great section on how hoarding contributed to the energy crisis. It's largely a perception issue. If the public believes we have an energy crisis they'll hoard NG, HO and crude and prices will go thru the roof.

To: jim_p who wrote (71944)	8/29/2000 4:10:10 PM
From: Wowzer	Respond to of 95453

Not a service stock, but UCL has a lot of insider buying..

To: jim_p who wrote (71944)	8/29/2000 4:17:28 PM
From: Tommaso	Respond to of 95453

PQUE had lots of insider buying. biz.yahoo.com PRS seems to have big insider holdings, but no outright sales or buying. XTO had a lot of buys at lower prices and over the entire past year, looks like. Thanks for mentioning this--it's certainly worth considering. Found any others yourself?

To: jim_p who wrote (71944)	8/29/2000 4:56:53 PM
From: isopatch	Respond to of 95453

JimP. Re: Recent strong insider buying? PQUE. biz.yahoo.com Will check some others later when I get a chance. Iso

To: jim_p who wrote (71944)	8/29/2000 9:48:35 PM
From: isopatch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

OK Jim, here goes. Stocks with recent insider buying and little or no insider selling. Using 2nd & 3rd qtr filings of insider activity there are 8 such patch stocks in my portfolio. 1. HGT (my largest holding) has one of the longest runs of significant insider buying I've ever seen in any stock. Began 18 months ago and continued in June and July 2000. 2. PQUE (my largest holding among the sm NG E&Ps) as mentioned earlier has some of the heaviest recent insider buying I've seen in any E&P. It's also up about 50% since I bought it under 2 1/2 a few wks ago. 3. ESNJ has some nice insider buying in April and May. No insider sales since that time. 4. PLLL some insider buying in April and May with no selling since. 5. STXD had insider buying in May with no selling since. 6. MWP had insider buying in May with no subsequent selling. 7. TCLPZ had some nice insider buying in June with no sales after that 8. ICOC (which in a rush I forgot to include in my list of longs to an earlier questioner) is a low price small/moderate size sm cap position in OS and petrochemicals with insider buying in April and May. No selling since. Been in a trading range lately but did pop 17%+ today<g>. Actually I may have more than 8. Problem is I don't have any insider data on foreign companies GRL, EEE or TESOF(an excellent sm cap forgot to mention earlier in rush out the door-soccer game was worth it, they kicked big time butt<ggg>). Hope that helps. Isopatch