Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sditto who wrote (30739)	8/30/2000 3:51:18 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 54805

Yes, all those trends are happening in the semi industry. I've watched through 3 semi cycles now, and am very sceptical of claims that "it's different now." Most of the things you listed help to shift supply/demand imbalances between semi niches, but do nothing to ameliorate overall over- (or under-) capacity. If fabs can more quickly switch to making different chips, then there should be fewer situations with overcapacity in one sector, and simultaneous undercapacity in others. But if the entire industry is in overcapacity, then there is nothing to be done but shut down new 2Billion$ fabs and write them off. Do you see any evidence that the delay in the delayed-response loop is decreasing? If the time from breaking ground to full capacity could be cut to, say, one year, that might end the cycles. Unfortunately, as fabs get bigger, with multiple new processes, the de-bugging/ramp-up time may get longer, not shorter. I won't believe it till I see it, because I've heard hopeful and plausible arguments favoring the end of cycles, at every cycle top. If you're right, then I'll be waiting forever to buy back AMAT at a P/S of 2. re: "a shower with a single knob to regulate hot and cold......most people will alternately burn then freeze themselves repeatedly": what sadist/voyeur conducted those experiments, and how did they get it past the Ethics Committee? Or was this experiment conducted on mice, and the results extrapolated to humans?