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To: mike cobble who wrote (1994)	8/30/2000 12:18:46 AM
From: mike cobble	Respond to of 2126

notes on cc, et. al. Follow on orders from early Fusion purchasers have amounted to 10x intial order purchases. EPS without tax benies ~ 1.14 Gross margins 47.3% (2000) vs. 40.6% (1999) Have to love this!! Quickening of decisions by large merchants for next generation products. $233 million backlog which will carry into Q2 Fusion market going forward couple years $3 billion, we want 1/3 of market ($1 billion) Looks like they are expecting at least 35-40% rev growth going forward. Expect revs and gross margins to continue improving over next several quarters And of course the positive BTB Backlog orders $233 million which will carry into Q2, sounds like ~ 75 day turnaround which they want to get down near 60. They have a 2 year tech lead on competitors (agilent, teradyne, creedence) My understanding they are not fusion competitors, just the competition for switching big customers over to fusion. 8/12 top Internet DSP and Communication IC comps have moved to fusion. 7 major Asian test subcontractors, 2 under volume orders Order and revs 100% growth. Robust Market, July accelerated contrary to market WHERE ARE WE IN CYCLE? Communications and Internet driving this particular cycle which many people don't understand, we do not see any forseeable slowdown, in fact we expect fusion market to increase to 3.5-4 billion and we expect to get 1/3 of this market over next 2-4 years. We think BLUETOOTH technology will be BLOCKBUSTER Solectron and Jabil are major component suppliers (both with over 30% 5 year foward growth. 200 dma 30.25, 50 dma ~ 27 $22 1/8 if we have 2-3 consecutive closes below this would be near term bearish. tomorrow opening below todays close could indicate one week of 10% weakness, testing $22 level Morgan Stanley was right on the money for the eps 2000, will be interesting to see what they say near term. I'm sure they still have $50 target and hopeful will increase this. The key price is 26 5/8, if we can't move into this, looks like will have some weakness.