Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: T L Comiskey who wrote (12455)	8/30/2000 3:15:33 PM
From: pat mudge	Respond to of 24042

Does not seem to be slowing out here in Ca Looking at the broad strokes, the following is from a leading industry report, as of Feb. 2000 (and I'm told numbers have been raised since then): 10Gbps termination components grew 100 percent to $180 million in 1999 and will reach $2.0 billion by 2003. Revenue for 10Gbps termination components rose at a 100 percent rate in 1999, from $90 million to over $180 million. From 1999 to 2000, the market for these components will grow 130 percent to $430 million. By 2003, revenue will reach $2.0 billion, which corresponds with a CAGR of 80 percent between 1999 and 2003. The most significant growth for the 10 Gbps components will come in 2000, when units will quadruple and revenue will triple. Contributing to this growth is the continuing increase in network traffic. Increasingly, service providers are planning to use 10 Gbps DWDM systems and are evaluating network edge routers with 10 Gbps interfaces. A greater number of DWDM system manufacturers have 10 Gbps systems ready. The number of component suppliers with 10 Gbps capability is steadily growing. This coordination, from service providers through their supply chains to component manufacturers, is a strong sign of a market prepared for high growth. The increasing preference of service providers for 10 Gbps DWDM wavelengths over 2.5 Gbps channels is depicted in Figure 1-8, which shows that 10 Gbps components will garner more than 50 percent of termination component revenue by 2003. >>>>> LU bet on 2.5 Gbps being the dominant market and missed. I suspect they're planning to leapfrog 10 Gbps to 40 Gbps, but where that leaves them in terms of being designed into major networks in the interim, I don't know. A couple other quotes from a lengthy report (well over 50pp including indexes). * Increase in key terrestrial DWDM optical component forecast total from $1.4 billion to $1.6 billion in 1999 and from $7.0 billion to $8.2 billion in 2003. * Change in size of market for WDM components for 1999 from $470 million to $610 million. * Change in size of market for WDM components for 2003 from $2.2 billion to $3.3 billion. * Inclusion of data for AWG WDMs from 1998 to 2003. The 1999 total of $190 million will grow to $1.2 billion in 2003. * Addition of market sizing for thin film interference filter (TF) WDMs for 2001 through 2003. Revenue for TF WDMs will reach $1.3 billion in 2003. * Inclusion of revenue for other dense WDMs from 1999 to 2003. The 1999 total of $90 million will grow to $420 million in 2003. If the AWG market doesn't impress you, nothing will.:) Pat