To: MGV who wrote (21339 ) 8/30/2000 11:35:06 PM From: Zeev Hed Read Replies (3) | Respond to MGV, I think that your error is in the miscalculation of what the stock could do in the event that a major PO comes down the pike. In a way, you could say that if VLNC survives, an assumption, you will allow me right now, then, the longer we wait for a PO the closer we will be to that PO. Look at what happened to RDRT in barely a week, from $4 to $8.5, just on the strength of an announcement of qualifications at four major DD's suppliers, in essence, a "grand slam". Fortunately, the technical behavior of the stock (it moved from roughly $2 to $4, on increasing volume, which I missed, because fundamentally, RDRT was a very "weak play", in a way, even weaker than VLNC, and I kept arguing with Auric against an entry because of the weak fundamentals), persuaded me that something, not yet known to all is coming down the wire, and it did. Funds manager with better knowledge than mine of the company's prospects will provide a technical signal to jump back in with their own buying. Once that buying comes, there is quite a possibility that VLNC will repeat its move from last November, and thus the returns would be better than those of an average group of tech stocks. Of course, from time to times, one gets "fake out" moves (like the last excursion above $21), a fund manager simply will need to rapidly recognize the error and step aside until he thinks the opportunity is better defined.
