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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: niceguy767 who wrote (7137)	8/31/2000 8:08:43 PM
From: Joe NYC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

niceguy, By the way, total Q3 revenues of $1.3 billion sounds OK to me!!!maybe low, though :-)!!! I think we should leave the irrational exuberance for Q4. Q3 will be ok, but not a blow out. Let's just recap: - July was lousy. Much lower than expected sales of Tbird / Duron. The chipset situation was horrible. There were very few motherboards out as a result of the chipset delay. Athlon Classic had to carry the day, with introduction of Slot A Thunderbird. K6 is disappearing from the desktop with nothing to replace it. - August has a better availability of VIa based motherboards and chipsets. Gateway switches to Socket A late in the month. Still no platform for Duron - Duron misses back to school season because of it. - September start of the good thing happening all over. Availability of the Via chipsets seems good, the integrated Via chipset will probably not make it this quarter (AMD support is still a low priority for Via), but some buying for the Christmas season for Compaq and HP will begin early, in order to get the stuff on the retail chains in November. AMD 760 chipset should be appear, but it will not make significant contribution in Q3. Sis and Ali chipsets will continue to be MIA. Basically, AMD still has only about 4 out ot the 8 cylinders engaged. Regarding chips sold, I believe just moving along, not accelerating. I don't think the stock will challenge the all time highs before Q3 CC, and if we do after Q3 CC, it will probably be based on the guidance rather than a blowout earnings. If there is a chance of a blow-out Q3, it can only be if Via is able to make a chipset for every AMD CPU packaged or in die form. I think the chances of that are slim. The only source of information on availability of Via chipset has been realworldtech.com I hope to hear a positive news regarding chipsets. Otherwise, we will be stuck in $30s for some time. Joe