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To: James Strauss who wrote (28858)	8/31/2000 9:24:27 PM
From: Peace	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

Jim, Thanks. Pride has no place in this business. <g> Peace

To: James Strauss who wrote (28858)	8/31/2000 11:35:01 PM
From: Stcgg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

From Peter Eliades Stockmarket Cycles update for Thursday, August 31st. "First of all, we should emphasize the George Lindsay bottom to bottom equals bottom to top pattern that we described earlier this week. That pattern based on the number of both market days and calendar days between December 9th, 1974 and October 20th, 1987, pointed to Wednesday, August 30th as a target date for a potential bottom to bottom equals bottom to top count. Obviously, in a pattern that has almost a 13 year duration, we must allow for a margin of error ± several days. The most important element of the pattern is that we're now in the heart of the resolution time zone. George Lindsay emphasized that if it were to be an important top, there should be more than one bottom to bottom equals bottom to top count, and indeed there is. There were 69 calendar days between the bottoms of April 14th and June 22nd. Add another 69 calendar days to June 22nd and it takes you to Wednesday, August 30th. There are 104 weeks or almost exactly two years between the lows of the weeks ending September 6th, 1996 and September 4th, 1998. Add another 104 weeks to September 4th, 1998, and it takes you to this week. There are exactly 34 months between the important lows of December 1994 and October 1997. Add another 34 months to October 1997 and it takes you to August 2000. Last, but not least, there are 76 months between the important lows of December 1987 and April 1994. Add another 76 months to April 1994 and it takes you to August 2000. There are enough bottom to bottom equals bottom to top counts resolving in this time period to account for a very major top. The fact that such a potential time resolution is occurring concurrently with a potential Sign of the Bear adds even more to the possibility of a major top in this time period. Today was the 24th day of churning in the potential Sign of the Bear pattern. By Wednesday of next week at the latest, we need to see a daily advance decline ratio below 0.65 to one. Should that occur and should the average daily advance decline ratio, for either two days or three days after the consecutive streak ends, be below 0.75, we will have seen a Sign of the Bear . Today , despite all the hoopla and excitement, the McClellan oscillator failed to move into positive territory. There was a potentially positive technical factor today because the Value Line Composite geometric Index moved convincingly above the upper level of its trading zone which has been in effect for almost a year. Will that be important? We do not think so, but we must rate it as a potentially positive technical factor. Here is a technical fact of potentially supreme importance and we doubt whether you have heard or will hear it anyplace else. Today the daily advance decline line of the New York Stock Exchange moved almost exactly up to its declining 200 day moving average. You should be aware that the daily advance decline line has been nowhere near its 200 day moving average since it fell below it in 1999 after a brief foray slightly above it. The daily advance decline line fell convincingly below its 200 day moving average in June 1998 and, with the exception of just a few days in July 1998 and in May and July of 1999, has remained well below the 200 day moving average for over two years. The moving average itself has been declining sharply and in technical terms, this should be an ideal shorting opportunity for the advance decline line, and thus the overall market." >><<

To: James Strauss who wrote (28858)	9/1/2000 8:30:23 AM
From: Casaubon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

Focusing on the broader patterns makes for a much clearer picture... Imagine trying to focus on the atoms in the picture of the Mona Lisa... You wouldn't know what you're looking at... Step back, and you can see the whole picture... Congratulations on seeing what's right in front of your eyes... : > should have used Seurat for your analogy <ggg>

To: James Strauss who wrote (28858)	9/1/2000 9:13:28 AM
From: Peace	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42787

Hi Jim, Looks like we are going to take out NDX July high with a gap up. We will likely come back next week to fill this gap and solidify the July high as a support level. Watch for the NAPM number at 10. The expectations a re for 52. A reading below 50 implies manufacturing is contracting. If we were to get a weak reading below the 50 level the bond market will soon start pricing in a fed ease, which will add more fuel to this rally. Lehman's Applegate made an interesting comment on CNBC yesterday. Historically, the stock market has started rallying a month before the last fed tightening and has on an average rallied 30% in the subsequent 12 month period. He thinks that history is being repeated. So that theory would project SPX above 1700 by next summer. Peace