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To: Percival 917 who wrote (31439)	8/31/2000 10:02:53 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 35685

Tom Galvin of DLJ is much much smarter than I am he sees NazComp at 5000 by yearend it is 4200 now I dont give two buckets of horseshit where Dow is only relevance is its cannibus (I mean cannibalizing) effect on techs here is what I see happening, pure educated guessword (guesswork) stocks are rallying right now, with perceptions growing that the Federal Reserve has about concluded their ill-advised tightening... they really cannot tighten any more, since the US economy might stall, and furthermore the USdollar is really putting extreme pressure on the Euro currency now... the Euro is at an alltime low in the 88's... any further Fed hike would send Europe into a recesssion... they would have to raise rates to prevent a currency panic!!! so stocks are rallying, and techs are leading... fine... I believe those who claim that mutual fund managers and institutional managers (pensions, etc) have not participated in this rally are only partially correct... Naz had 1.8 billion shares traded today... they are back... next week will be interesting I expect the rally to continue for a few weeks thru September... people are sick & tired of the lousy shitty doldrums of stuttered starts and painful selloffs, which resulted in bruises & deep cuts in accounts... expect the NazComp to challenge 4300 quickly, overrun it easily, but not before a couple days of head scratching and crotch adjustments we must get news that our economy has NOT stalled in order for any rally to avoid another shock wave like what we saw in the last week of July... Naz then declined sharply from 4300 to 3600 and cut off my left leg... that decline was due to strong GDP numbers and fear of more Fed hikes... but more importantly, it was during vacation season... we got big news this week, with housing showing renewed strength after several weak economic numbers before it was surprised strength that hurt us... now we must have NO MORE weak economic news to hurt us... note that the bond market has taken the brunt of housing news... I am watching the bond market closely... we may get slightly higher rates in the 10 yr TNote very soon, but we can absorb it I expect the September rally to get carried away a little... most LaborDay rallies go too far, leading to painful selloffs in late Septembers and early Octobers... most people remember the Octobers, but late Septembers are historically much worse (worser) so I expect a buying opportunity to present itself in late Sept or early October I plan to devote additional funds at that time my hope is that my personal transition is timed well that is my take I am personally surprised that no pullback occurred after the FedMeeting and before LaborDay tells me: cover your 'nads, money is flowing in hard & fast intelligent comments welcome are there any? / Jim Willie