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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Z Analyzer who wrote (8653)9/1/2000 9:00:32 PM
From: Tom Simpson  Respond to of 9256
 
Interesting responses to my somewhat cynical observations of the in-house analyst. At best, motivations cannot be known, just construed, and we construe from extrapolations of our own actual experiences, such as they are. I remain profoundly skeptical.

Meanwhile....Mr. Z, you already have your eye on the very ball one should watch most closely. Not only did they write off a bunch more cap ex last quarter (which will juice gross margins a bit this quarter) they also charged earnings with a reserve against headcount reductions this quarter. But now we know units are up and a check of the blather over on the yahoo htch thread will yield the info that htch has recently been hiring and recalling. Sophisticated reserve accounting has a Provision acct, a Used for Purpose Intended acct, and a RETURN TO PROFIT acct. In short, they have some amount wiggle room to manage earnings short term.

What actually matters is units....even with the plus 10 million this quarter they still need another 10-20 million more before they are, as you say, "making real money". This is possible, but would probably need substantively more demand out of Seagate and/or IBM in order to realize it. Its kind of notable that mxtr, hdd, and wdc aren't showing the same dynamics as htch and rdrt.

Looks like I'll be spending the weekend trying to figure out which htch covered calls I want to write :o)

Best Regards.........Tom