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Technology Stocks : ACTM $100 Million Cable Modem Contract with MOT -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Rob Preuss who wrote (1226)9/2/2000 3:12:59 PM
From: G.M. Flinn  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1250
 
Rob, re: ACTM and relative valuation.

Congrats on your "win" with ACTM. I actually increased my position in the mid-$30s to a fairly significant stake. ACTM's relative valuation is still a screaming buy, and with their move into higher margin niches I think the stock has a long way to run. I can't imagine it staying this undervalued vs. the other CEM co's. Either the other CEMs significantly pull back, ACTM continues its rise, or another CEM will buy ACTM (remember HDCO). ACTM's relative valuation is so low that just about any of the CEM co's could buy ACTM for twice its price and still have the deal be accretive. For what it's worth, below is a link to my updated CEM valuation comparison as of 9/1/00.

Message 14319349

Glenn



To: Rob Preuss who wrote (1226)9/8/2000 6:57:15 AM
From: joemjo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1250
 
Rob,

Congratulations!

First, Good job on carry this thread practically by yourself.

Second, I hope all of your "learning" these last few years will position you for future successes. I too have changed my investing strategy over the last 4 years from a very active trader to a more buy and hold method. Just last night I reviewed my positions for a charitable gift and saw where I own ACTM at 8 and change for a 650% profit since early 1999. Probably bought CMCI a 4+. I never held a stock a week before 1998 probably. My performance has increased dramatically with the new strategy. The point here is that for both of us a willing to learn and change is a great way to go through life. Well done.

Thirdly, I am still in love with the CEM industry. It sounds like you no longer have any exposure to it. I find it easier and more conservative (I hope) than finding a product company with the next "silver bullet". If you can do it I think you will be more richly rewarded than me. I do have concerns that a possibility exists that the networking infrastructure build out may be slowing its growth rate or even slowing. If so, CEMs will pay a price. Though I am only assigning a 10-20% likelihood at this time I am more concerned than before.

joemjo



To: Rob Preuss who wrote (1226)1/24/2001 9:56:14 AM
From: James1000  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1250
 
Too bad you didn't get back in on ACTM when it was at the $10 level. I suspect that ACTM will do very will even in a downturn because of this snippet from a Lucent press release:

"The Murray Hill, N.J., company said it will reduce expenses by $2 billion by cutting jobs, eliminating some product lines, writing down assets and outsourcing more work to contract manufacturers."

As you can see even when electronics makers are reducing their product lines because of poor performance they are actually increasing their work to outsources.

If ACTM can get the contract for the IT boards then this company would be able to meet its extremely high analyst expectations.

I did not manage to get any stock at the $10 level because I was already margined around 30%.