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To: NOW who wrote (72182)	9/1/2000 10:10:50 PM
From: AltLar	Respond to of 95453

If Colin Cambell, the petroleum geologist from Petroconsultants in Geneva (See the March '99 issue of Scientific American or pick up a copy of his book "The Coming Oil Crisis"), is correct and we are at or near the summit of a permanent, worldwide production peak we may never see $20 oil again. If he is correct, a year or two from now, $40 oil may look cheap. Larry

To: NOW who wrote (72182)	9/2/2000 12:09:37 PM
From: Umunhum	Respond to of 95453

<< what is your time frame for this scenario and what chance do you think oil will see 20 before 40 dollars? >> We have already seen the dip that he was talking about. Right after he wrote this article, in April, OPEC promised 800,000 more barrels. They never had an impact as our inventories continued down. Most of the increase just legitimized what they were already producing. However oil prices dipped temporarily with many of the contracts trading down at the $22 level. pull up the charts if you're interested: futures.tradingcharts.com The world's demand of oil rises 4 mbpd during the Winter months. We're coming into the inventory building months and we need a build. Without sufficient inventory levels and knowing OPEC has only 2 mbpd of excess capacity, we will have shortages in the coming months. The proverbial cat will be out of the bag then, as everybody will learn about depletion and that no excess capacity remains. As Michael Talbert ( CEO of RIG ) says the "past cycles have been characterized by periods of excess capacity, I think that as we move forward in the next 10 years we are going to be in an environment that is also cyclical but will be more characterized by a shortage and I think that the fact that OPEC has used up most of the surplus production capacity that they have is not good news for the world's growing economies .... I think as a nation we have severe energy problems in front of us with respect to oil, gas and electricity." Translation: Oil prices will spike up for periods of time to the 40's and then be brought down to the 30's when more production is brought on.