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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (28937)	9/1/2000 11:32:59 PM
From: drsvelte	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

Don, the most important thing here is that you re-post that recipe for Fried Rice that you did about a year or so ago!!ggg. It was great, but I have misplaced it. On a less serious note, I can't see why we must continually get sidetracked into these tedious bull vs. bear debates. The market will go up and it will come down. Your technical analysis is much appreciated here as are the thoughts and cogitations of many others on this thread. Like a lot of us, I am just trying to make a buck or so here and there whether the market be up or down. My personal long term perspective, based more on fundamental/demogaphic than technical arguments is that the bias for the markets will be up. But that's FWIW. In the long run, its family, friends, and fried rice. Now how 'bout that recipe dude!

To: donald sew who wrote (28937)	9/2/2000 10:45:05 AM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (7) \| Respond to of 42787

donald et al, The recent postings about making calls that turn out to be right or wrong has reminded me of something that I see all the time on SI. Some of this is reiterating what donald and others have said. There is the mistaken impression in general that TA is about predicting the future. One might be able to make a case that it is better than average at predicting the very near-term, but let's leave that for now. TA is about defining probable outcomes and assigning risk and reward to these outcomes. For example, when the NDX broke the downtrend line from Mar-00 on decent volume, we had a nice situation where going long was less risky. It is a low-risk situation because we will know quickly that we are wrong. If the NDX were to fall below that line we have been proven "wrong" without losing very much. Another common setup along these lines is when we get a breakout through such a downtrend line followed by a pullback to the line -- this is an excellent low risk setup. We can go long knowing that there is support immediately under this price -- if it does not hold right here, we are "wrong". The reward side of this setup is where we are now. One could figure (many did) that after that line was taken out that we would probably continue to grind upward until we got to the current level -- a test of the Jul-00 high. Friday we closed within a few points of that high and fought hard around that level for much of the afternoon. BTW, since one could trivially see that there was going to be an important fight at this level, it is/was an excellent time to take some long money off the table. Where does NDX go from here? I have no idea, but I do know that this is another low-risk opportunity. If we close over this level with vigor, then I am eager to be long, if we fade back, then protect longs and look for shorts as there is a better than average possibility that the rejection at this important resistance level will lead to more down. I understand that this example is over-simplified. We have not talked about the sort of common head-fakes that can lead to whipsaws. Whipsawing is not a problem if you are disciplined, as you will get out immediately if you are "wrong" (remember, you entered at a low risk point -- that means a small loss). After a couple of whipsaws, the chances are better than average that you will ride the bigger move that will dwarf the small losses you took getting whipped. While it is important to consider sentiment, rates, fed policy, market breadth, treasuries, and on and on, I often have to remind myself of the utter simplicity of reading the chart: If the NDX can manage to take out the Jul-17 high, then we will have another high in a series of higher highs and higher lows coming off the May bottom. It will show me, regardless of the other arguments that clutter my head, that this market wants to move higher, as it has taken out a very serious obstacle. I have an opinion of where it will go, but opinions are like assholes. -g Cheers --Allan