Polls show Bush has electoral vote advantage
By Richard Benedetto, USA TODAY
usatoday.com
National polls show Republican George W. Bush and Democrat Al Gore running neck and neck. But the Texas governor appears to have a lead over the vice president when the race is viewed as a state-by-state contest for electoral votes, which it really is.
In the past month, Al Gore gained ground on the electoral map and George W. Bush lost some territory.
New Jersey moved from tossup to Gore as Gore used the convention to shore up his traditional Democratic base.
Connecticut, on the basis of Gore's pick of Sen. Joe Lieberman to be his running mate, moved from the tossup category to Gore.
Florida remains in play due in large part to Gore's appeal to seniors with his prescription drug program. He also appeals to Jewish voters with his selection of Lieberman. Gore has a slight lead.
West Virginia, a traditional Democratic stronghold, moved from a Bush lead to too close to call in a poll taken after the Democratic convention.
Delaware moved from tossup to a Bush lead, but the latest poll there was taken before the party conventions.
Pennsylvania moved into the Bush camp from the tossup category, but that was before the party conventions.
Minnesota, a historically Democratic state in presidential voting, has moved from tossup to Gore.
New Hampshire went from Bush to too close to call in a poll taken after the Democratic convention.
Mississippi and Oregon have had no recent polls, but Oregon should be safe for Gore and Mississippi for Bush.
Virginia, a Republican stronghold in presidential races, moved from tossup to Bush.
Maine, where the Bush family has roots, went from Gore to tossup.
North Carolina and Arizona went from Bush to tossup.
But neither is close to having a lock on the 270 votes needed to win.
Most analysts still see the race as very fluid. Since the Democratic convention, Gore has been gaining in several key states. Many traditional battleground states, most in the Midwest and South, could still go either way.
So as the race heads into its final 10 weeks, look for the candidates to focus the bulk of their campaigning time and advertising money on those states where polls show the struggle most competitive. Labor Day, which marks the symbolic start of the fall campaign, will find Bush and Gore in states most analysts still consider competitive: Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida.
"This is still a very close election and this final campaign period is going to be more important than it usually is," says Stephen Hess, a Brookings Institution presidential scholar. "Any small thing that happens potentially could make a big difference in the outcome."
Polls in often-competitive Missouri, Ohio, Kentucky and Pennsylvania show Bush well ahead. But they were all taken before the Democratic convention, which helped Gore bounce back in national polls.
Polls in other states, taken after the convention, mostly show Gore gaining ground.
With that cautionary note, the most recent polls show Bush with solid leads in 14 states for a total of 158 electoral votes.
He also can count on 10 more traditionally Republican states with 53 electoral votes for a total of 211 votes, 59 short of the 270 magic number.
Recent polls show Gore leads comfortably in four states with 112 electoral votes. He also can count on seven other historically Democratic states and the District of Columbia for 58 electoral votes, bringing his total to 170 - 100 short of victory.
That leaves 15 states with 157 votes too close to call, making this still anyone's election. However, Gore would appear to have the higher hill to climb.
Given where he stands now, Gore would have to move Pennsylvania, Missouri and Kentucky out of the Bush column and pick up tossups Florida, Wisconsin, Georgia, Michigan and Illinois in order to win. Take one or two of those states out of the Gore camp and he's in trouble.
At the same time, Bush has to hold onto everything he has and pick a majority of tossups to put himself over the top.
Michigan-based independent pollster Ed Sarpolus, of EPIC/MRA in Lansing, says much will depend on where conservative-leaning independents who live in states such as Michigan, Illinois, Missouri, Pennsylvania and New Jersey finally land.
The latest USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll shows independents nationwide leaning to Bush, 44%-36%.
"By the first of October we should be getting a feel for where this race really stands," Sarpolus says.
Electoral votes, like legislative seats in Congress, are allocated to the states on the basis of population.
California, the most-populous state, has 52 members of the House and two senators, for a total of 54 electoral votes.
The six most thinly populated states - Vermont, Alaska, Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota and South Dakota - have two senators and one House member, or three electoral votes.
All other states fall somewhere between.
The District of Columbia has no voting membership in Congress, but gets three electoral votes.
The presidential candidate getting the most popular votes in a state gets all of its electoral votes, regardless of margin of victory.
That makes a narrow win in California or New York much more meaningful than a big win in, say, Vermont or Wyoming. |
