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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (28968)	9/3/2000 11:26:35 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

Allan, >>>> I I want to argue one point from your post. I would be very surprised to find any credible study that making calls for sizable moves approaches anything close to 62%, <<<< If you reread my post I did say "at best". In the past I have gone into detail of 2 mathematical studies done in genetic mapping and fluid dynamics. What does the market have in common with genetic mapping and fluid dynamics - nothing other than they are natural processes. Yes, I realise that one can argue that the market is not a natural process. The reason I did not mention in detail that probability was lower than 62% was that I was arguing with those who were giving the impression that they could predict the market at 100% since they use terms like "will" or "must" or "definite" or "absolute". Frankly, on making the big call the average person is probably way under 50%. Im not talking about simple calls like the market will move up an set new highs, but calls like the NAZ to set new highs before the end of the year. There are just too many variables to consider. The greater the variables the lower the probability. Now for discussion, 62% is only 12% better than flipping a coin, which basicly implies that for ever 10 calls about 4 will be wrong which is only 1 better than break even. That is not easy street, keeping in mind that big calls are maybe once or twice a year or every few years.