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To: Mannie who wrote (31713)	9/3/2000 9:58:32 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 35685

on optical bubble CIEN in my view has hit a TA target of 230 swung from 175 to 130 and now up to 230 it seems ripe for profitaking except for its 2:1 in several weeks I agree in principle with the overfunding of optical, the expansion of marketcaps within optical sector... sure, it has wicked torrid fundamental growth... as the lastmile is attacked for businesses, look for still more heightened interest, and then a climax... there is still so much more growth yet to come with a few key leading optical stocks in stratosphere, it is just a matter of time before a wave of coordinated selling takes place e.g. Ciena, Brocade, Juniper but not Sycamore, Avanex, Uniplays the burst event will require some event... maybe a downgrade by Goldman Sachs, maybe a respected research report claiming less than expected growth levels... maybe some report that unavoidable traces of water within fiber distort signals... maybe some signal attenuation claims after repeated amplifications.. who the hell knows? look what happened to wireless... expected unit sales for full year 2000 went from 100 million to 80m to 60-65m now... these reduced expectations harpooned the entire wireless sector... I expect something like this to happen to fiberoptic, but not as exaggerated since the fundamentals are better look at fiberoptic another way, visavis wireless here are advantages that distance fiberoptic story from wireless: no standards wars, no nation flipflopping, no consortium haggling, no dual mode units, no entrenched 1990's decade political power centers, no protected investment base, no claims of brain cancer, no perceived threat of govt interference or regulation for health/safey reasons, no battery issues, no seasonal unit sale peaks, no end user consumer AT ALL, no waiting for consumer devices to catch up to available technology, no waiting for nextgen units to appear on shelves, no waiting for internet service providers to offer extended service... the list can go on NO SECTOR IS INVULNERABLE TO CORRECTIONS but fiberoptic's reality is so much stronger for so much longer than the majority of investor's believe... this sector is probably the most significant information age technological field in history... it puts Moore's Law to shame with greater acceleration year to year I pursue fiberoptic company stocks, but the midcaps who have come down and recovered at support, with intact fundamentals, who work on niches with growing customer bases, and growth to come as far as the accountant's eye can see ScottMan, we do need a warning once in a while I dont like most fiberoptic Price/Sales ratios thanks, Jim Willie