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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Zeev Hed who wrote (14480)9/4/2000 1:23:51 PM
From: thecalculator  Respond to of 60323
 
from the same piece:
"We don't have any 'take-or-pay' arrangements, so it minimizes our risk during a downturn," Eichler said. And the company has been guaranteed space in the fab when the market tightens, he noted."


Regardless, ALSC still is kicking in the $75 million!

Guess who takes on the risk during a downturn of operating a $1 B fab at less than full capacity? TSEM, of course. And the problem I cited is the timing, the fab will open, unfortunately, in the middle of the next "downturn".

Regarding high risk Zeev, consider what Dr. Harari said on the SanDisk/Tower conference call:
We basically view our investment in Tower at 10% equity for a $75 million investment, very similar to the way we see our previous investment in the UMC joint venture, which we made around 4 years ago. We invested $51 million for a 10% equity stake at USIC foundry; we also received at the time the same one board seat...and 4 years later UMC has bought us out and that investment now is worth around $500 million..10x...and of course we have the guaranteed wafer capacity, so we are very very pleased with it.

We think that with the projected dramatic growth and demand that we see and other people see in the market for the next 5-10 years that the foundry business is going to be a very very good business to be in.
...
... as you look at Tower's total market cap today it's around $400 million and if you look at UMC or TSMC's market cap it's in the $50-$80 billion and they brought in strategic investors such as SanDisk and Xilinks and NSB and so on and they never looked back. I think the fact that we bought in at $50 and were bought out at $500 million nobody cares about that because that's what the market cap of UMC increased dramatically through strategic partners such as SanDisk....


Furthermore, regarding Tower's unique position, Dr. Harari stated:
Let me just say we have customers in Europe primarily that would like SanDisk at least to not have all of our production in Taiwan. We've taken a first step with Toshiba in Virginia and we think that there is a real requirement for a good foundry supplier with a good technology in Europe and today that is a void that I think is a very significant opportunity for Tower.

This thing has been in the planning stages for years, and the master plan is just starting to unfold. Bottomline, this thing is not only about Tower bringing on state-of-the-art geometry, but it is also basically about bringing on capacity. Tower will be increasing their current capacity by about 4.5 times with Fab 2 (my estimate), and I'm just talking total wafer area. That does not include the even larger resultant capacity gains from using finer circuit geometry. This is needed capacity in a hotbed of fabless IP. As for further value-added to this extra capacity, throw in the impact of the higher margin 'specialty technologies', and the additional potential from the likes of a successful public Saifun (for which Tower owns 14%), and we have an interesting play in the Tower share...a play that IMO will not necessarily take five years or even two-three years to reward investors.

Happy Labor Day!
thecalculator