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To: bowledover who wrote (4613)	9/5/2000 9:45:21 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13572

comment on Sept/October months historically most people had visceral painful memories about October declines but actually Sept is the worst month what happened so often in the past is that a simultaneous flow occurs when traders, analysts, and retail investors return from vacation in August and prior to LaborDay... then stock prices rise in unison, often getting carried away... toward the end of Sept, a sharp correction selloff tended to happen that climaxed in October this year, August a strong month when most experts were calling for a down month for whatever reason (e.g. vacations, FedMeeting, climax lousy summer) since 1999 no historical pattern has unfolded as it had in the past... spring selloffs are happening early... January effects are coming endofyear... tax selling in March I doubt Sept will be lousy, not with the Fed tightening cycle winding down I expect October might involve a shock wave, only to set the stage for the end of year, and to take some profits from the Sept rally that might be staged just some thoughts patterns cannot be anticipated if everyone expects a much heralded effect, it comes early / jim