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Technology Stocks : Energy Conversion Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Futurist who wrote (5193)	9/5/2000 11:59:23 AM
From: Ray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8393

I think there are at least four things that make the CA EV poll unreliable. (1) People strongly tend to give "nice"nswers to poll questions. (Would you risk your life try to save a drowning stranger? Yes, surely I would.) (2) Would the people who said they would buy an EV at a "reasonalble" price buy one at the actual price needed for mfgrs to make a profit? (Even at $150/kW, NiMh batteries would have a manufacturing cost of over $5000 per 35 kW batter pack.) (3) Would those people actually buy an EV if given three choices: regular vehicle, EV, hybrid (ultra low emissions, 60 mpg, high milage range)? (4) Major auto makers do not seem to be simply against change or to hate alternative vehicles -- they are endorsing hybrids and FC/EV types -- yet they all state that their market research shows a much smaller demand than claimed from the subject poll. Possibly these mfgrs are not fully sincere or are mistaken -- but the same doubts apply to the pollsters too, right? Make no mistake, I want to see cleaner alternatives to gasoline-burning ICEs, but I think many environmentalists are not fully appraised of all the alternatives and all the pros & cons for these options -- and can be very stubborn in more-or-less assuming nefarious behavior on the part of the auto industry (I mean the entire industry, not just one or two auto makers). Consider: As a precondition, the people answering the subject poll are first made to read in-depth (really read and understand, as proven by a subsequent test) about advanced-hybrids and FC autos as well as the relatively well-known battery EVs. Now have a new poll among these same people asking how the auto industry should proceed. I think these same people would likely endorse a plan to, first, develop and promote advanced, ULEV hybrids, then introduce H2 fueled FC vehicles -- which is just what is happening, IMO.

To: Futurist who wrote (5193)	9/5/2000 7:17:33 PM
From: Don Devlin	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 8393

On December 6, 1996 I was the first person in Los Angeles to lease a GM Gen 1 EV1. In December of 1999 I leased a GM Gen 2 EV and am presently driving that car and averaging about 140 miles per charge (Nickel metal Hydride batteries made in Troy Michigan). Within a month or two after leasing the first EV1 I began to notice what appeared to be terrible advertising and absurd marketing. I made my feelings known to everyone involved and was assured that the advertising and marketing would change. Month after month the promises of change were given by GM and Saturn to the EV1 drivers but there were no changes. After a few more months and even years it became clear that this Giant Corporation and all other Auto companies were trying to sink the electric car. They had developed the egg that could kill the Golden Goose. How? No replaceable parts required, other than tires. No maintenance. Batteries (NiMH) that would last the life of the vehicle. In volume the EV could be sold for the amount of profit GM makes on their large SUVS. In 1998 I wrote the following letter to EVworld.co and it was published. Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart and the EV1 by Don Devlin Remember that very fine British play and movie, 'Amadeus'? The story dealt with Mozart's last years at a time when he was no longer the precocious child prodigy who had delighted the music world in 18th century Europe. He arrives at the king's court relatively unknown and is not immediately identified as the great genius who the world will later revere. There is one person however that does recognize the sublime brilliance of the great master. Salieri is the official composer of the Austrian court. Although Salieri is a minor composer, he is the most respected composer,and the very one who could do the most for Mozart and the very one in the court most threatened by Mozart's genius. Although conflicted by his great admiration for the young composer Salieri believes that for his own survival he must destroy the great artist who threatens his exalted position. And now we come to the General Motor's EV1. Is there an analogy here? GM and other automobile companies are experiencing one of their most profitable periods. Much of this affluence comes with the outsized SUVs that have now taken a bit more than half the consumer market. The profits on these monsters of waste and consumption and pollution are enormous. The parts replacement business is enormous. The infrastructure is in place. The General Motors EV1, the electric vehicle, is a masterpiece even in its first generation. The second generation is about to appear with very few significant changes but with the emphasis on greater range through the addition of advanced Nickel metal hydride batteries. The problem is that the EV1 is a snap to make and in volume could sell for a very reasonable price. There's no engine, no clutch, no transmission and on and on. The car is essentially an aerodynamic, electronic computer with wheels. It is a technological marvel. It has but one moving (Propulsion) part as opposed to hundreds in the Internal combustion engine. The EV1 is a no maintenance vehicle it could last more than ten years without ever setting wheels in a gas station or changing a part. No grease, no dirt, no smell, no pollution. That's not sometime in the future, that's now. The talk is that the new batteries will last the life of the vehicle, over 100,000 miles although that has not yet been officially announced. The EV1 is a powerhouse. It can power out of a dead stop faster than almost all Gas engine cars. With instant torque, it can feel like a G force if you hit the accelerator hard. It amazes everyone who has ever driven it. It is the most aerodynamic production vehicle in the world. It is beautiful and attracts the attention and approval of everyone who recognizes it. You may by now have heard reference to the famous 'EV smile' that comes from fellow drivers and the ever constant 'Thumbs up' EV drivers experience. The GM EV1 is simply the best URBAN , Suburban, and commuter vehicle in the world. Is it in the minds of the planners that they have created the machine that can kill their golden Goose? Some think that is the case and is the only thing that can explain what has to be the most unattractive most uninforming and in fact invisible advertising campaign in history. GM advertising has yet to show a full shot, or attractive picture of the car after two years in the marketplace. As an EV1 driver I can tell you that each day as I am charging at a public charger or simply, parked somewhere, a small crowd of people gather to ask questions about the car. They know not who makes it, how it is propelled, how far or fast it will go , where to go buy or lease it , how much does it cost, where do you charge it, will it run out of fuel and on and on. GM and all the other companies have told the potential consumers nothing at all that would induce them to buy or lease these vehicles. Is this incompetence or has Salieri decided the car must be destroyed? If this is intentional they are succeeding wonderfully in destroying or seriously delaying the advance of the electrics. If after two years, this is actually incompetence, the future of the electric vehicle is very much in doubt and so is the future of the executives responsible for this incredible debacle. I believe These thought have been proven to be true. September 5th 2000 Don Devlin