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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: puborectalis who wrote (34914)	9/5/2000 6:04:02 PM
From: Neocon	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 769670

Currently, political analyst David Scott, of Roxy Roxboro’s Nevada based Las Vegas Sports Consultants has Democratic Candidate Al Gore as even money to pull a U-Haul up to his boss' house, while George Walker Bush is a 4/5 favorite to follow in his fathers footsteps. Those with a fondness for the longshot may be licking their chops at Pat Buchanan, the longest in the tooth also the longest at the sportsbook with a 500/1 shot at capturing the nations top job. So, just how are these numbers determined? Dr. Ron Facheaux, America's premiere political handicapper (yes, such people exist), explains it this way; Explanation of Odds: 1.Multi-candidate races. Example: if candidate A is given 2:3 odds, that means Candidate A has a 60% chance to win (add 2+3=5, 3 is 60% of 5). If Candidate B has 3:1 odds, that means Candidate B has a 25% chance to win (3+1=4; 1 is 25% of 4). 2.Two-candidate races. If Candidate A is 2:1 over Candidate B, that means Candidate A has a 66.7% chance to win (2+1=3, 2 is 66.7% of 3). 3.Incumbency re-election. If Incumbent A has 1:4 odds, that means Incumbent A has an 80% chance to win again (1+4=5, 4 is 80% of 5). If Incumbent B has 2:1 odds, that means Incumbent B is not favored for re-election, only having a 33.3% chance to win again (2+1 = 3, 1 is 33.3% of 3) All odds refer to each candidate's ultimate chance to win. They do not refer to expected margin of victory. The percentage of "chance to win" should not be considered a prediction of that candidate's eventual vote share percentage. The two do not relate. Winning and losing is a 50-50 proposition and that's what the odds refer to. David Scott of LVSC and Dr. Facheaux of the Political Oddsmaker are just two of many in the political oddsmaking arena. Smaller firms include Conway Sports Research who had Bush at 9/2 and Gore at 6/1 earlier this year, but just like sports, the numbers will vary from book to book, as will the type of wager. For example, Caesarsportsbook and the rest of the CAN network have the Republicans as -150 favorites on the moneyline to retain control of the US Congress, while Rudy Guliani is a whopping -230 favorite to win the New York Senate Race - with the latest polls showing Hillary Clinton ahead by 6 points, she looks to be a pretty solid bet as a +160 underdog. The Brits are in on too, and those who are more familiar with European wagering may find the numbers at WillHill.com more appealing. Britains largest bookmaker is offering Al Gore as the favorite at 1.66 and George Bush as the underdog at 2.10. Betting on American Politics obviously takes a back seat at WillHill to betting on UK Politics as WillHill bettors can currently get a price of 101 on Susan Kramer to be The 1st Elected Lord Mayor Of London. sportsgambling.about.com