To: Carl R. who wrote (26 ) 10/4/2000 10:10:13 PM From: haikaa Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 70 TIBCO(TIBX) BUYING MCTR??? Bear Sterns believes the chances are 40%-50% that such a transaction will occur. >>>>> Rich Scocozza 212 272-5840 rscocozza@bear.com 10/03/00 Chris Dale, CFA 212 272-5731 cdale@bear.com Josh Hantman212 272-3823jhantman@bear.com Warren Symon 212 272-3983 wsymon@bear.com Subject: Industry Overview Industry: Enterprise Software BEAR, STEARNS & CO. INC. EQUITY RESEARCH [HI Bear Stearns Software Week: The E-Business and Internet Software Update - Companies Mentioned: MCTR, MSFT, ORCL, PHCM, PRTH, SEBL, TIBX ]Growth of the Wireless Web and Opportunities for Software Development The Internet and wireless telecommunications industries are rapidly converging to form the wireless Internet, a platform which has the potential to revolutionize the way consumers and businesses interact and conduct commerce. This convergence has resulted from a variety of factors, including: increased dependence on Internet-based services such as e-mail and remote access to corporate intranets, the development of national digital cellular networks, and the proliferation of wireless Internet devices such as cell-phones and personal digital assistants (PDAs). Going forward, we believe that the wireless Internet, along with broadband, represents one of the most fertile areas of opportunity for software development. ... Unlike many other technologies that are prematurely hyped, only to fade to the background until achieving feasibility at a later date, we think that the wireless web will see widespread adoption sooner rather than later. We are of the opinion that the wireless web, as it pertains to the imminent reality of ubiquitous computing, is the future. Looking ahead, we foresee the creation of a "software fabric" on the Internet in which disparate software applications are linked together for use on wireless platforms. This view is validated, we believe, by Microsoft's recently announced .NET strategy. Microsoft's vision is for .NET services to be available across the Net so they can be accessed from any type of device, such as a full screen digital tablet, wherever you go. The user interface will be a lot richer, eliminating the keyboard as the primary means of interaction and favoring handwriting and voice recognition. The wireless web is clearly central to this vision. In our opinion, Microsoft had little choice in adopting this strategy. To ignore the imminence of ubiquitous computing could, we believe, prove fatal for any software vendor. In essence, we think that Microsoft and other every software company on the planet face a simple choice in regards to ubiquitous computing: adapt or die. Random Musings: Based on our observations, we think that a purchase of Mercator by TIBCO may be in the works. In our view, a combination of these two integration companies makes a lot of sense. First, Mercator has a very strong sales force and R&D effort, which would significantly add to TIBCO's capabilities in these areas. Second, the companies have complementary product offerings, which would create a significant opportunity to cross-sell to TIBCO's existing customer base. Mercator brings to the table its application servers and work with XML. At present, we believe the chances are 40%-50% that such a transaction will occur. Upcoming Events: Date Event Location 9/20-9/22 Support.com User Forum San Francisco, CA 10/25-10/27 Fall Internet World New York, NY 11/15-11/17 Connect IT Atlanta, GA 11/28-11/30 SupplyWebExchange Chicago, IL 12/5-12/7 eB2B World Orlando, FL