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To: LLCF who wrote (16105)	9/6/2000 10:46:54 AM
From: Perspective	Respond to of 436258

I agree with your two-year prognosis. The only people who will actually make money over the next 1-3 years are going to be bears and market timers. Now that the consensus is fully built that "it doesn't pay to time the market", it WILL pay to time the market. People are totally ignorant of the causes of secular bear markets. Even very intelligent people. They're all waiting for some sign like a recession to sell, not understanding that the market LEADS the economy. People can't seem to grasp the concept that, given the conditions present today, the average market return over the next five years isn't 20% any more. It's not even 5% or 10%. Given the run the market has had, history says the average return is NEGATIVE! I just cringe every time I see the massive amounts of liquidity (euphemism for DEBT, LEVERAGE) being added to the system; I know that, over the intermediate term (months), the market ultimately tracks money supply growth. BC