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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LLCF who wrote (16311)	9/6/2000 2:23:48 PM
From: chic_hearne	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Re: Ho ho... Clowns all, they will be 'riding' somewhere if they get back in... no doubt about it! David, Bookmark this post, as long as the Naz, Dow and S&P don't tank by the end of the year, the SOX will hit new highs sometime by the end of the year. The logic used by these ANALysts is so flawed it amazes me these guys can get paid million dollar salaries for this so called "analysis". Intel has problems, but other than them I don't see it anywhere else. Most of the SOX is overvalued, but when has "value" mattered lately? For example, flash. I've been doing a little digging to figure out what's going on. Spot prices are really irrelevant. AMD flash has a 44 week lead time for 10,000 units. 10,000 units is nothing compared to the $350 million a quarter they do. Companies making new products don't want to chance it on the spot market. Prices may look good now, but in a month or two things are totally different. Therefore, projects are scrapped or delayed until long term contracts can be signed. This also makes the spot prices wildly fluctuate, but really doesn't say much about the overall flash market. I've made a ton of money off the SOX by being my own analyst, using that info to try and play the spin the real ANALysts are using. When things do go bad, I'm sure I'll see it months before any of the ANALysts will.