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To: Ronald J. Clark who wrote (72466)	9/6/2000 11:37:56 PM
From: The Ox	Respond to of 95453

Ronald, thanks again for posting the NG data. I find the information contained within these numbers worthy of a lengthy post! First, let me say that I can't believe anyone would want to short the patch stocks at this time? Next, there is a scenario shaping up for this coming winter which could cause NG storage levels to reach the *crisis* stage. Hang with me while I review your table. Your table shows that NG storage levels fell each year from January through mid-April. Storage level lows ended up at the 1000B level in 2000+ '98, while bottoming out at the 1300B level in '99. In 2000 there was a stock draw of -1329B, in 1999/-1010B and in 1998/-874B, during the same period of Jan through mid-April. (Please note that in early April of 1998, NG stock started to build significantly while this did not happen the last 2 years!) Now lets take a look at the stock draw from Sept 99 to Jan 15, 2000 and compare it to the draw of stock from Sept 98 to Jan 99. These totals are -460B,-500B respectively. Lets assume that we draw down SLIGHTLY less NG during this fall and the start of January 2001 as we did in the previous 2 years, or -400B. With the current storage figure at 2200B, we will end up with only 1800B in storage for the start of 2001. This is a very important figure. If we look back at the Jan-April draws from the previous three years, we can make a WAG about where storage numbers might end up come April 2001. A) We have a winter draw like 1998. NG storage numbers will be very low (900B), but not low enough to cause too much concern, IMO. The sustained high commodity prices should increase exploration and production levels sufficiently. We should be able to rebuild NG levels during spring and summer to an acceptable level before next winter. There's a chance that the uncertainty factor could keep prices sustained at a high level. B) We have a winter draw like 1999. NG storage drops to (800B). 20% lower than anytime in the last few years. At this level, unless we increase supply substantially, we could face another winter of high concern but maybe not enough to cause a true crisis. Sustained high prices cause a lot of production to come on line fast but by then those of us who invested in the patch will be singing all the way to the bank!! C) We have a winter draw like 2000. Here's where the crisis scenario becomes very real. A -1300B draw from the 1800B level would leave a paltry 500B in storage. 500B!! Half this year's low, something that is hard to contemplate. This could end up being a tough challenge for the new president, who ever he might be! D) I don't even want to consider a draw greater then last year's 1300B. How low can you go?!? Finally, I have a feeling the shorts better pray for a very large build in the NG storage level during the next few weeks. That and a VERY mild winter<g>. Anyone see it differently?