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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Meridian who wrote (72485)	9/6/2000 7:09:19 PM
From: BigBull	Respond to of 95453

Roebear is the SI Drilling chief environmental scientist. I refer all our deeper weather questions to him! <g> It's chilly in Charleston. Unseasonably cool. Almost had to get out the leather today. That's about as far as I go with weather predictions. GOU looks good.

To: Meridian who wrote (72485)	9/6/2000 9:56:18 PM
From: Roebear	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

BGambler, I'm the guilty party with the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) fascination and weather predictions. Big Bull is a bit too complimentary, I'm not a scientist, just a weather bug in addition to an oil bug. I've been dropping hints here on the board that the worst I expect for this winter from an energy investors standpoint is a "normal winter". I strongly suspect, but have not made a firm prediction on it yet, that this winter will have some very cold temperatures in the Mid Atlantic and NE. These are the only two areas I predict with confidence because these are the only areas I have kept records and observations from. Based on my observations of weather patterns this summer, a "normal winter" may be a misnomer, even if the temperatures do end up close to the averages, as this winter's weather could end up being somewhat variable. I am tempted to say that it will be unusual, but I really have not been able to concrete my views on how unusual yet. Matter of fact is, this is one thing delaying my winter prediction is the recent weather is not fitting my observations of weather patterns for the last twenty years, but goes farther back to 60's and 70's when my records are not as complete (hey I'm not that old, ggg). One indicator that I might be right on this is if we have an early snow (an inch or two will suffice) in Central to Southeastern PA, say before Nov 15. Any snow event in October would also cause me to have confidence in a cold winter. From a more scientific viewpoint, leaving local weather observations, natural observations and hex signs aside, there are some indications that we are entering a period (twenty years or so) where cold ENSO events would be more common than over the last twenty years. If I find a good article detailing this I will post it here. Another thing to watch is the current La Nina, which had been weakening fast in July (not a bad thing for cold Mid Atlantic/NorthEast winters) but of late has been gaining some strength. I have to check the most recent observations. Ski buffs and oil investors hoping for a cold winter, don't want La Nina to go away, they just want it to be WEAK. Finally, if the NAO is bugging you, don't sweat it, it's too early, NAO doesn't really come into the picture until late Nov at the earliest, with most of its effect being late Dec through Feb. I should shut up about this until I'm ready, I'm starting to sound like the Old Farmers Almanac. And they are almost always wrong, ggg. Best Regards, Roebear