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To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (108045)	9/6/2000 11:56:34 PM
From: GST	Respond to of 164684

Oil prices were to low. This is a commodity very sensitive to supply/demand. A slight shift sent prices up and sometime in the last eight months a fateful decision was made -- wait for prices to come down before refining more oil. Prices did not come down. Refineries are still waiting. If they run at full capacity around the clock all winter -- they will not catch up. By the way, electric capacity and gas are also in a squeeze. The "new economy" sucks up huge amounts of fuel -- electronic everything and SUVs. Even a slightly below normal winter and -- no more goldilocks. We are going down.