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To: seminole who wrote (2899)	9/7/2000 8:05:41 AM
From: Aggie	Respond to of 4916

Hello Richard, All indications seem to be that this OPEC increase will be like the last one, only worse. In other words, there will be little oil price impact realized by a production increase. A certain momentum has developed regarding the price and perceived supply of oil. The tanker fleets are currently operating in excess of 95%, by the reports I've read, so that any delays in schedule have the potential to cause ripples in the supply requirements of the refineries. The refineries, meanwhile, are faced with two important issues: (a) they have been putting off loading up on feedstock, hoping the price of crude would drop, and (b) this is the time of year the gasoline runs change from summer to winter formulations, meaning they are trying to empty out the storage tanks of summer formula. And, this is the time of year they slow down refining due to (b) in order to do maintenance. There are serious concerns being voiced (by those who know more than I) that it will be difficult to meet demands this winter, especially in the areas of distillate (ie. home heating oil, kerosene, etc.) abut also with respect to NG. The NG builds typically seen as a result of summer injection are not taking place. All of this paints a picture that, due to a combination of escalating price, tightened demand, and an aging infrastructure in the US, delivery of refined hydrocarbons and NG to the end market will be more marginal this winter than ever before. This perception has served to drive the prices up even further, and my take is that it will continue to do so. I see a dynamic emerging in the energy sector that is similar to that seen on the Nasdaq Tech sectors last spring - wilding fluctuating markets, and no perception of base value. Remember what happened in May? I think that as this dynamic becomes established there will be at least one big correction until the "new paradigm" becomes established and accepted. Regards to all, Aggie