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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 49thMIMOMander who wrote (2859)	9/7/2000 1:27:26 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 197348

Fair enough Ilmarinen, of course China will specify more than coverage for 3G spectrum. It will be a sophisticated and complex requirement. But coverage will be a dominant issue. They'll specify MC-CDMA to fit in with their Korean neighbours and get it done sooner rather than wait until 2007 or so for full-blown DS-CDMA. I was kidding that I think China should hold a beauty contest, but was pointing out that it would be of huge benefit to Q! if they did and used coverage as the main criterion. That would force the service providers to build out maybe 3 times as much infrastructure as they might otherwise have done, in areas which would not otherwise be economic. Without the burden of spectrum costs, they could afford to do that and if that's what it will take to get them the licence, then that's what they'll do. That would result in Q! getting 3x as much royalty than if the spectrum is sold at auction to the highest bidder and the money goes into invading Taiwan. Sold at auction, the winning bidders would build out economic infrastructure and charge what the market will bear per megabyte. Sold at no spectrum cost, the winning beauty will build 3x as much infrastructure and charge what the market will bear per megabyte. Q! would get 3x the royalties. The most economically sensible way of doing it would be to sell the spectrum at auction to the highest bidder and use the funds for government purposes [thus not needing to charge such high taxes to fund government ideas - such as invading Taiwan]. But that's not the way authoritarian people like to do things. So the Best Beauty will: Cover most people 1% to 100%; one point per % Use mostly Chinese handset makers; one point per million handsets ordered. Donate money to Jiang Zemin's party; one point per $million Provide free handsets to the police and army; one point per 100,000 handsets. Ramp up plans over 5 years; one point per 100 million pops covered Most megabytes per km2; one point per petapixel Stuff like that; more points Multiply all points by themselves and divide by the PRC GNP growth rate to get the 4 winners! Simple really and that would be much better for Q! than an auction. In Britain, the winners of 3G spectrum won't be filling the Grampian Mountains with base stations in case Tony and Cherie take a holiday there. They'll focus their money on fast rollout where a NPV per basestation is economic, starting in the main cities. Same in Germany. Mqurice