To: cody andre who wrote (17025 ) 9/7/2000 9:27:00 AM From: George Papadopoulos Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 17770 stratfor.com Tudjman's legacy while he rots in hell... The Balkan Crime Problem 0233 GMT, 000907 Croatian officials are under pressure from voters and EU countries to eliminate criminal syndicates in and around Croatia. A resulting new, anti-crime initiative by the government in Zagreb may have some impact in Croatia itself but will likely be damaging in western Bosnia. After weeks of talk by Prime Minister Ivica Racan, his government has proposed a so-called Special Squad. The unit, a financial crimes task force, would combine intelligence services and federal police and is modeled on the Clean Hands operation in Italy that attacked mafia networks and targeted high-ranking politicians. Under the leadership of Franjo Tudjman, members of the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) established strong networks to support a Croatian economic elite, whose wealth was acquired through buying and then bankrupting privatized companies. Anywhere between $2 billion and $9 billion was stolen in the past 10 years, and much of it went abroad. Global Options, LLC, reports that money laundering in the country is the most severe example in the world. Croatia’s campaign against political and economic crimes at home and on its borders will target old political enemies. Many of Tudjman’s cronies live in western Bosnia now and wield control over criminal syndicates there. As Croatia takes a tough-line on crime, financial police will confront not just thieves, but political enemies of the past. A wave of assassination threats, as well as an alleged killing, appears to have set the Mesic government into motion. Last week, unknown terrorists executed a Croat man, Milan Levar, who testified against other Croats at the International Criminal Tribunal for Yugoslavia (ICTY). Mesic asserted over the weekend that he received a threat. A group called the Croatian Revolutionary Fraternity (HRB) sent a fax to Mesic declaring that he would be bombed. Croatian authorities believe HRB, established in Sydney, Australia, 1961, to be disbanded, and that the name is used by a copycat group. The European Union is pressuring the government to clean up the country’s money laundering and corruption problems. Croatia is part of the 1999 Stabilization and Association (SA) project of EU states to promote regional cooperation. Under the program, Croatia is eligible for more monetary aid. Racan has demonstrated support for the SA by barring financial support to the HDZBiH from Croatia. Racan’s next step will be cracking down on political and criminal networks running between Croatia and Bosnia. Extremists loyal to the old party of Tudjman have their strongest clientele networks in western Bosnia. From there, they control smuggling networks, heroin trafficking, and prostitution with inroads into Croatia. They have influence over border police, veterans groups and the army. Racan’s two-tiered crackdown on political and economic crimes in Croatia and Bosnia will spark a dangerous confrontation between radicals and police forces. Criminals in support of HDZBiH will operate outside the law to protect their syndicates. Right now, western Bosnia is a haven for criminals – who are in some cases protected by Bosnian Croat authorities and have no fear of international police. But an anti-corruption campaign extending into Bosnia will expose the connections between criminals, hardliners and militants – and even politicians in Bosnia – who support the idea of a separate state for Bosnian Croats. A backlash is likely as the targets of the campaign will turn to political executions and stoke nationalism.