To: Tommaso who wrote (72525 ) 9/7/2000 9:03:07 AM From: Tomas Respond to of 95453 Oil may top $40 this winter - Calgary Herald, September 7 By Chris Varcoe, With file from Herald wire services Crude prices shattered a 10-year record Wednesday as energy experts predicted oil could top $40 US a barrel this winter. ... A cold snap could drive prices "through the roof," predicted Judith Dwarkin, vice-president of global energy studies for the Canadian Energy Research Institute, an independent think-tank based in Calgary. "It could cause West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to briefly spike to the $40-a-barrel neighbourhood. It's flirting with $35, even with the Saudis trying to quell the romance," she said in an interview. "Between now and the end of the year, it could be a relatively glorious affair." ... While more crude is on the market, oil prices have risen 36 per cent since January and more than tripled since December 1998. The U.S. Energy Information Administration issued a report Wednesday upping its own forecasts, saying the probability of WTI averaging $30 a barrel at midwinter is now about 50 per cent. World oil markets are vulnerable to a cutoff in oil supplies or an extreme winter cold snap, it added. "Could it (oil) go considerably higher? Absolutely. I could see it going into the high $30s in the short term," said Kate Warne, an energy analyst at Edward Jones brokerage firm in St. Louis. "I think $30 oil is a psychological benchmark . . . $40 oil is truly no man's land." The all-time high for Nymex crude oil was $41.15 a barrel, reached on Oct. 10 1990 during the run-up to the Gulf War. While all eyes are now on the upcoming OPEC meeting, petroleum producers are watching cash flow levels rise and revising capital spending plans for the coming year. "It's probably as good for the industry as it's ever been . . . the commodity prices have finally arrived," said J.C. Anderson, who runs Anderson Exploration Ltd., one of Canada's largest petroleum producers. "I don't think anybody is going crazy out there. I think you will still see people spending within their cash flow."calgaryherald.com