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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (37164)	9/7/2000 9:00:19 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Prices of 64Mb DRAM Chips Expected to Peak in November September 7, 2000 (TAIPEI) -- A local IC maker has projected that the price of 64Mb dynamic random access memory (DRAM) chips will rise at the end of September and peak above US$9 in October or November. The decisions by Compaq Computer Corp. and Dell Computer Corp. to increase their orders given to Taiwan's DRAM makers are likely to help the DRAM price move up, after Micron Technology Inc. and several wholesalers glutted the market by dumping their inventories. Powerchip Semiconductor Corp.'s general manager said he expects the prices of 64Mb DRAMs to rise in the fourth quarter, based on the findings of a DRAM-demand analysis delivered by De Dios, ICE, Dataquest and In Stat. He noted that the company's August sales reached an all-time high of NT$2.4 billion, and even forecast average monthly sales growth of 30 percent in September and October. He said he wasn't surprised by the estimate of several foreign investment firms that Powerchip Semiconductor could rack up earnings per share (EPS) of NT$4 for the full year of 2000, and as much as NT$10 in 2001. "We should do so," the general manager said. (NT$31.04 = US$1) Makers of personal computers believe that the price of memory chips will turn around at the end of September, after weathering a dip in demand due to the slide in PC production in July and August. Memory chip providers believe that only mild fluctuations will be seen in the spot price and contract price of memory chips, now that it's clear that the supply shortage has been relieved. "The memory chip industry is bound to recover sooner or later," said an official at a chip maker. Hopes for a recovery in the fourth quarter may fade if the spot price fails to revive, but a recovery is generally expected in the first quarter in 2001. A short-term recovery in the DRAM industry is now expected, with Intel Corp. reporting that its CPU shipments will reach a peak in September or October to cope with strong advance demand prior to the year-end shopping season, before dipping gradually in November and December. (Commercial Times, Taiwan)

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (37164)	9/7/2000 9:21:56 AM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

"INTC has come out several times and have said they were capacity constrained, so I really do not know what sources Kumar is listening to." Agree wholeheartedly Brian. But what I have noticed in the past is a disturbing trend by analysts, particularly because of the benefits of CNBC exposure, of taking credit for events that are hardly related to their initial call. For instance, in this case, INTC near highs was an easy target. Price probably had gotten a bit ahead of itself. So Kumar says what he says for dramatic effect. Then when INTC earnings come in, they are not at the high end of the range. CNBC remembers that Kumar had bashed the stock, but conveniently noone remembers the reasons, thus another visit to the studio with promotion for Kumar and his firm. At that point, it doesnt matter one bit to anyone that INTC earnings may be a bit lower because they couldnt meet demand rather that a fall off in demand. But Kumar comes on and says I told you so and says their pipeline problems are being solved and upgrades. Its a scary thing.