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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MetalTrader who wrote (72540)	9/7/2000 11:56:41 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 95453

MetalTrader - good comments... I just got back from a little labor day vacation - The sentiment indicator here & the amount of new faces is certainly very high once again (allways a contrary indicator folks - and perhaps the most accurate one)... but, not that the fundamentals of crude & Nat Gas prices don't support that sentiment & our move here of late. I think the overall market poses the only major risk to the OSX here and I firmly believe that it will cap the upside potential of the sector in 2001. I think we are in the 7th, or 8th inning of the overall market Bubble Game fwiw. The CAC 40 is up from 1700 to 7000 (a 4 bagger) from 1996 to the present. We know what the NAZ has done, the DOW is now at a record PE again & the DOW companies face impossible comps & we've seen via P&G et al - what the Street does on earnings misses... We seem to have forgotten what the NEKKEI did & if this is NOT a bubble market - we'll never have one. MetalTrader - Great comments on the refiners & majors - remember folks; XOM is a NET BUYER of Crude Oil ! - select majors, refiners & service laggards are the play - and it's a necessity to keep raising tight trailing stops up behind mo-mo names like SII CAM BJS HAL BHI SLB & the drillers in general. The majors have allways made their move later in the cycle as crude finds a lower base off its peak and refinning margins improve. I think it's important for the majors & refiners that the Street in general & not just the energy fund managers come to believe that the bottom for crude oil is $25ish and not $18 crude; as the worst case scenario bottom for late 2000-early/mid 2001; then the majors & refiners will rally strongly imo. Drillers will have a huge earnings breakout sequentially if not in Q4, in Q1 at the latest imo - but; that "may" be the prime selling/profit taking point if not just for a trade, perhaps a permanent exit from the OSX as the OSX has historically peaked approx 9 months before earnings do & April-May 2001 looks like a potential OSX peak & exit imo... I love the golds better than oils however... really healthy technically. The XAU up 4-5% and some individual stocks up 10% off their lows - on the sub 50 dip; all holding well here into a new alltime EURO low and weak Aussie dollar; thats technically very solid - look at the HUI & XAU; we have a realistic 2-3-4 bagger trend reversal setting up. Food and Energy do matter - allways have & allways will; inflation will not just rear its ugly head in early 2001 - it will be rampant. Wage pressure is huge and it's just the tip of the iceberg... read Fleckensteins comments of late - great info. We can "not" really have a healthy economy & a soft landing with this growth, wage & commodity price pressure and simultaneously - the current account deficit. That imbalance of the current account deficit is a major red flag... I'd love to see a correction to OSX 115-118ish here off of the OPEC production increases and profit taking to set up another rally leg thru OSX 165ish, but I don't know if we'll get one, or not. I am "only" adding laggards here - there are some "doubles" left - most allready spoken about here - we know who they are...and I like that refiner call Metal - Man; it's a winner on a base of $25ish crude. Via realistic target prices for the OSX names - the case can be made for a peak of OSX 200 - very realistically & OSX 165ish by year-end looks obtainable off of Q3 reporting "if" Nat Gas & Crude Prices remain in this range. I just see the "top" in the Oilpatch as coming much sooner than most do & not because of the fundamentals aren't there, but the overall market will take oil shares down with it - allways has, allways will and Gold & Metals will have their day in the sun... If the XAU holds 48-52ish here off of the Euro & Aussie dollars lows - BAMM! ...the bottoms is in.