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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Terry D who wrote (72554)	9/7/2000 11:40:52 AM
From: jim_p	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

For over a year, the analysts have been "continuously and significantly" raising their earnings estimates for oil companies. qw2001.quicken.com Jim

To: Terry D who wrote (72554)	9/7/2000 11:55:11 AM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

>> We think there is a lot of oil in Asia and on the water. And it’ s coming here next. << Great this BS is starting all over again. I guess he can tell the people in the NE that they don't have to worry this winter. We're swimming in oil. Just wait a little long it'll get here soon (of course we'll still have to refine it, but no matter we're swimming in those too). LOL. Actually it's good have skeptics, but this is unreal. I'd say it's almost delusional. Now I not only want to climb that wall of worry I want to spit on those analysts below me... The oil industry and OPEC should really put some effort into getting more reliable oil data. A more stable oil price would benefit everyone (except the oil traders). (FWIW - Nice volume on FGH again today)

To: Terry D who wrote (72554)	9/7/2000 12:13:57 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 95453

re: Oil Contrarians & that reverse deja-vu comment... << A thinking contrarian may see these events as an opportunity to sell short oil and oil-sensitive assets. Although it is difficult to time the reversal of a commodity’ s price, we believe that when oil prices start down, the correction will be anything but mild. >> ...what happened to E&P's last September just when everyone was predicting a winter demand spike to $10 ?... I agree that the correction will be anything but mild; but I think this guy is a little early; I think we get a "buying opp" correction here very soon as many of the "non-beleivers" will once again cash in the chips, take profits & exit permanently from the oilpatch, thinking they just saw the peak. - but, I think the next major leg may lead to a top; as I am not so sure that Nat Gas supply will not be brought into a historic balance by mid- 2001 and that OPEC will not bend to US political pressure to keep Crude at $25ish. Again; the profit taking exit opp will be approx 9 months before profits & earnings peak & I think that will be in April-May 2001 for the exit (but, could come with a Jan-March rally as well) - with a resulting ultimate earnings peak occuring in late 2001-Q1 2002. Neither $5 Nat Gas, nor $35 crude oil are sustainable; just as $1.60 gas & $10 crude weren't either. This is, was and will allways be; a CYCLICAL sector. The minute we start trading the Oilpatch like this is a growth sector; we'll be humbled... My mindset is different than most; I am using very, very tight trailing stops here; ONLY adding strong laggards & not being afraid of taking profits & keeping lots of cash for another profit taking-exit buying opp that will happen shortly & prior to Q3 reporting imho. I think we've got another really strong - non-stop monster leg move of 40+ points to the OSX, but I think we get a moderate correction here to shake out the non-believers; but the next "easy money - homerun" play in the oilpatch is on the short -side folks. I look forward to making 2-3 baggers once again at OSX 165-200ish... and shame, shame, shame on anyone who spends all this time & research on the long side that does NOT think the market owe's us on the downside as well. If you want to be a longtime Oilpatch trader; You MUST learn to play the short-side to the cycles here; you MUST ! The easy money was at OSX 50-80 and it will be at OSX 165-200 as well - on the downside.

To: Terry D who wrote (72554)	9/7/2000 12:21:30 PM
From: Aggie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Terry, All, re: missing barrels. You might try posting the link that allows people to read the context as well as the clipping: cnetinvestor.com Bear Stearns is the source. Personally I think the guy's a meathead. As if we can't keep track of the oil which is on the way, or as if 4,000 tankers are going to show up at once for offloading - "Wall of oil", my ass. Looks to me like someone missed his buying opps. Regards to all Aggie EDIT: By the way, Terry, this is not critical of you, thanks for the contribution.

To: Terry D who wrote (72554)	9/7/2000 3:07:46 PM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Well so far the market says no. I, frankly, am amazed at the current strength of the oil markets, all this heavy jawbone action, and oil not only stays over thirty, it goes to $35? Kinda makes me think something is going on underneath we don't know about. I mean, no way crude should be at these levels right? The spin doctoring has been absolutely fierce the last two weeks. To no effect. Why? Your post reminds me of the DLJ "smoke on the water" call of a few months back. Do these guys take turns? Pick straws for whose going to do the heavy lifting? Where's the Oil? Got me! I'm wondering where's PKD 6? You don't have any PKD to sell me do ya? Don't want to miss the run to 20, don't ya know. ;o}