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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Barry Grossman who wrote (52789)	9/7/2000 12:58:49 PM
From: Ali Chen	Respond to of 93625

<I do not think such a turn of events is in the offing for Carl.> And you are right! Carl is speaking from technological point of view, and tries to show you how unsound is the Rambus "technology" from almost any perspective (excluding some embedded apps). A nonsense will always remain a nonsense no matter what, even despite of any court decisions, and no "turn of events" can change the facts.

To: Barry Grossman who wrote (52789)	9/7/2000 1:38:30 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 93625

RDRAM Production by: ptnewell 9/7/00 9:10 am Msg: 157270 of 157271 Sherry Garber, who already had a distinguished history of producing implausibly optimistic estimates for DDR production (it was to hit 10% of the market this year, a prediction she clung to as of the impossibly late date of February '00) and implausibly pessimistic predictions for RDRAM, has apparently outdone herself. Apparently she is now predicting that for the remainder of the year the DRAM manufacturers will churn out negative RDRAM production (DRAM black holes?), the only way possible to put RDRAM at 1% for this year. I didn't save all the links I should have, but I have enough below to show the impossibility of Garber's prediction. First, note that between Samsung, NEC, and Toshiba we have a fair share of the DRAM market as allies (according to DataQuest, 21%, 9%, and about 7% respectively). Samsung has been steadily upping its own RDRAM production. In its most recent estimate, just about two weeks ago, Samsung stated that: "Samsung estimates 7% of the total DRAM market will be RDRAM in 2000, increasing to 15-20% in 2001". quote.bloomberg.com t Samsung also also said that RDRAM will be 20% of its own '00 production, rising to 40% in 2001: quote.bloomberg.com t NEC is also raising RDRAM production, as the above story indicates. I lost the link showing Toshiba raising its RDRAM production to 3 million 128 Megabit RDRAM units/month. This is almost entirely to support the PlayStation2. If someone has the link, please help. Still, reports of the large number of PS2's to be sold have been widespread, so plainly I'm not making that up. Notice just how bad Sherry's estimate is: Samsung's 21% market share, times 20% devoted to RDRAM (which is the latest estimate from July, 2000, upped from earlier in the year) = 4.2% just from Samsung alone. If you add in Toshiba, NEC, and some small production by Hyundai and Infineon, the estimate by Samsung (7% of 2000 production) is not bad. Now this is slightly below the DataQuest original estimate of 10%. But is is way ahead of Sherry's 10%. Moreover, consider how we got here: For the first few months of the year, RDRAM production was quite low, probably just 1-3%. Basically, Micron, Hyundai, and to a lesser extent, NEC didn't do what they promised. However Samsung saw an opportunity. Originally they planned on a smaller RDRAM production. But all three Rambus allies, Samsung, Toshiba, and NEC have been cranking it up lately, exploiting the opening. (NEC is indeed an ally again, now that the Hitachi lawsuit is settled). Bottom line: The RDRAM production is following an arc much closer to that predicted by DataQuest than Semico's Sherry Garber. DataQuest predicts a 60% RDRAM share by 2003.