To: kaka who wrote (160451 ) 9/7/2000 4:31:57 PM From: D.J.Smyth Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 176387 PC, memory makers scoff at sales slump reports ...Even computer makers aren't gloomy about their prospects. In Taiwan, Arima Computer said it's getting more orders from its main customer Compaq Computer, indicating the notebook market is growing. Arima forecasts sales for July to December will increase to $1.3 billion, a 63 percent gain from a year ago... if laptop sales are growing for CPQ, they're growing for Dell as well. By Bloomberg News September 7, 2000, 10:45 a.m. PT SEOUL, South Korea--Just about everyone has soured on computer memory chipmakers, except their main customers. The companies that make the computers that use the chips, such as Sony and Trigem Computer, say sales are strong and getting better, a sign chip demand won't be slowing soon. "I don't see signs of a slowdown," said Tetsuo Kanno, a spokesman at Sony, adding that the maker of the Vaio series of laptop and desktop personal computers is still on target to ship 2.8 million units in the year to March 31. "Our popular models are gone right away." Concern that demand for computers would fall short of expectations caused Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette analyst Boris Petersik yesterday to conclude memory prices will fall as computer shipments in the United States have missed forecasts, sending shares of Micron Technologies, the third largest DRAM maker, 12 percent lower. Personal computers account for 70 percent of all of the demand for DRAM chips, meaning investors will continue to watch PC demand closely. Micron's Asian counterparts have been hit even harder. Samsung Electronic's stock has lost a quarter of its value in the last two weeks on concern some indicators of dynamic random access memory chip demand are turning negative. Hyundai Electronic Industries shares have fallen 27 percent in the same time period. Investors have been watching the spot price for the Industry--standard 64-megabit PC100 8X8 DRAM, an indicator of demand in the industry. After peaking at $8.96 per chip on June 31, the price has fallen to $8.35. While a limited amount of chips are sold on the spot market investors look to it as an indicator of which direction long-term contract prices are headed. Not everyone agrees DRAM spot prices are the sole indicator of computer memory chip demand. Yesterday, Samsung Electronics forecast the market for the chips will remain in shortage until 2002, as rising demand for DRAM chips used in electronics equipment other than PCs such as digital cameras, televisions and video disc players will continue to outpace increased capacity. "This whole thing about chip prices falling is a false alarm," said Charles Schmitt, executive director at OSK Asia Asset Management, which manages $300 million in Asia. "In the medium- to long-term, chip prices are still going to go up because demand is not necessarily only coming from computers but from digital cameras and some handheld devices." Even computer makers aren't gloomy about their prospects. In Taiwan, Arima Computer said it's getting more orders from its main customer Compaq Computer, indicating the notebook market is growing. Arima forecasts sales for July to December will increase to $1.3 billion, a 63 percent gain from a year ago. The picture is similar in Korea, where Trigem Computer, the world's largest PC maker by production, says computer sales haven't slowed more than usual. Computer sales typically pick up toward the end of the year to coincide with holiday shopping, pacing similar gains in chip sales and pricing. "You can't really say that demand for personal computers was weak, as June through to September is always the slowest time for sales," said Kim Sun Joo, a spokeswoman for Trigem Computer. "Demand always picks up from September and that's what's happening." While demand may be improving again, some analysts caution it may take time to filter through to chipmakers and that indicators investors use may not show signs of a recovery just yet. "We have checked with the PC guys, and demand has already picked up. But they already have inventory, and so we will need some time for them to use that up," said Hwang Min Seong, an analyst at ABN Amro Securities in Seoul. "Chipmakers are making tons of money" and investors have underestimated just how much more they stand to make, he said. Copyright 2000, Bloomberg L.P. All Rights Reserved.