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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (72599)	9/7/2000 4:10:40 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Greenlaw, part of the reason you're so unpopular is the manner in which you try to make your position. You keep screaming SELL, SELL, SELL. Conversely I don't like people who scream BUY, BUY, BUY either. You're putting yourself in the spam category by using those tactics. You wouldn't be screaming SELL so loudly unless you were already underwater or overextended imho. I can agree that the OSX looks overextended, but the fundamentals are VERY compelling. There will be plenty of time to short the OSX (after the XOI has made solid new highs and shows signs of retreating). Correction near term, quite possibly...the end? Hell no. You talk about an immenent correction, but most of the people here don't own the OSX stocks you've shorted. I know very few here who boast about HAL, BHI, SLB these day. Most of us are in the laggards so your "dire" predictions fall on deaf ears. Will I be selling PGO and KEG after they've consolidated sideways for more than 6 months? Will I sell MDR or FGH near 52 week lows? I don't think so. The OSX can correct for all I care. I tend to agree with BigBull about the products situation though. There is speculation in the crude markets, but we're SCREWED if we get just a normal winter.

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (72599)	9/7/2000 4:30:44 PM
From: Tommaso	Respond to of 95453

You are at least as welcome here as I was on the QCOM thread when I predicted a big drop. But to produce the same effect as I did you will have to call for $12 crude.

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (72599)	9/7/2000 4:41:24 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

and I know I am the most unpopular poster on both the RIG board on YHOO, and here! Quite the contrary, greenlaw4-7. If you have followed the SDOFS thread over the past few years like I have, you would understand that ALL views are relevant here! We have passionate discussions on this thread, which have gotten too personal at times, but for the most part the issues are the focus. Whether you are right or wrong, you should be encouraged to speak your peace. We will be happy to congratulate you on your successes, just as we'll be happy to rib you mercilessly when you are wrong. (...ok, maybe we'll begrudgingly congratulate you if we are losing money while you rake it in <vbg> ) A 25% correction in the price of crude, back to the 26-27 level will cause a major correction in the OSX. I agree strongly with your theory. However, I openly question your timing. You are counting on OPEC opening the flood gates, which I believe will NOT happen. I believe that crude should drop down into the low 30s in the near future. The problem I have with shorting OSX stocks at this stage is the difficulty with forward expectations. Will crude be $22/bbl by April? Will it be $27/bbl? or $32? or 37? This environment makes it extremely difficult to make intermediate term predictions but longer term fundamentals are currently in order for the patch. $4+NG and $30+oil is VERY bullish for service companies, IMO. Good luck with your timing. Michael