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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carepedeum2000 who wrote (34101)	9/8/2000 12:03:53 AM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 57584

. . . . September to Remember? . . . . Carpe, I still believe tomorrow marks the end of the 4DML squeeze. . .so I'm looking for a major dip after 2PM followed immediately by a significant bounce. . . if so, I will cover the dip and simultaneously rotate into long high-fliers and Early Bouncers for the bounce. Naz futures are very high tonight. . . so I'll be sweating somewhat. . . though I did take some profits at Tuesdays lows from my short entry Friday. . . and I still have plenty of longs. . .it will be interesting tomorrow to say the least. They don't ask me if they can rally! Next week is another story. I think we will see earnings warnings have an increasing effect on markets beginning next week. . . the question is "WHICH sectors will get hit first?" The "sidelined money" everyone has been talking about is looking more to be a myth than anything real. I doubt we'll break out of the summer trading range to the up side any time soon. There is nothing dramatic on the horizon, IMO. But it would not surprise me at all if we saw another manipulated 4DML squeeze before October. As September progresses, the Oct 3rd FOMC of course becomes more significant. . .and you can bet there will be plenty of hype to drive it. Recent hype is that Greenspan won't allow the markets to rally. I say he won't interfere one way or another. . . but again I believe the absence of "interest rate worry" in the announcement will be good for a quick pop. However, we are not talking about just any old month here. . . we're talking about September into October. . . historically known for weakness and panic, respectively. In summary, I am bearish on the week of Sept 11, due primarily to expected earnings warnings. . . we are still trading at the higher end of the range. . . so there is plenty of downside in the trading range. . . and room for downgrades on high-fliers that got away from themselves. If we get our 4DML squeeze day tomorrow, it may trigger some negative TA indicators. . . which could domino into a weak week ahead. Don't worry, Bulls. . . we could get a surge near the end of September, leading into the FOMC. . . and we could see some 4 or 5 day rallies in September IF the volume holds strong. However, I have my doubts about the buy side volume. . . the volume has been strong the first week of Sept, due more to rotation and new short-positions than buyers lined up around the block. Buy side volume will be the key to the momentum in September, IMO. One thing we have not seen this summer over last summer is capitulation. By October of last year, the bulls just gave up trying. They were fast asleep when the bottom was finally put in. This year, they are anxious. There are still buyers on the dips and there are sellers on the peaks. And with the added volatility this year over last year, it is tricky to make clear calls with any degree of confidence. This is no news to active traders. . . .but it is quite frustrating to long-term investors . . . especially those looking for that ever elusive perfect call of the tech bottom. Rande Is