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Technology Stocks : George Gilder - Forbes ASAP -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Phoenix who wrote (4809)	9/8/2000 10:33:48 AM
From: JDN	Respond to of 5853

Dear Gary: Is CSCO going out of BUSINESS? How soon?? Gosh, I guess I better sell now!! (NOT) JDN

To: The Phoenix who wrote (4809)	9/8/2000 11:18:19 AM
From: ratan lal	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5853

Gilder has taken such a myopic view of communications as to suggest that routers will soon become hardware devices Why do you think that Routers are not hardware and apt to become commodity items like PC's, printers etc. Dont you think that several employees of CSCO and other router cos. are capable of leaving (like Hewlett and Packard did) and starting their own cos. because their ideas were rejected or just because they saw an opportunity? And what happens when you have competitors and more product than demand (it will happen). Bingo - commodity !

To: The Phoenix who wrote (4809)	9/8/2000 11:52:15 AM
From: hhieslmair	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5853

I agree with your analysis. I like reading G because he is thought provoking, and has creative ideas. But often I start really thinking about what he is saying and realize that it is off the mark. Electronic routers is a case in point. Optical routers are so far off, it is absurd to even think about them now. Yeah, I know all about the MEMS mirror tech, but that is a far far cry from optical routing. Provisioning & Add/drop yes, routing no. At some point people will realize that. While demand for electronic routers will continue long into the future, they will become a commodity. HH

To: The Phoenix who wrote (4809)	9/8/2000 3:15:04 PM
From: greedsgd_2000	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5853

Your analysis of Gilder is way off the mark: YOU GOT TO READ BETWEEEN THE LINES. EXDS (not yet explicitly picked) for example a few months back was a giveaway, and he was dropping hints all over the place. Sure, THE TELECOSM list is bid up. TRUE, MONEY MANAGERS POUNCE ON EACH PICK RIGHT OUT OF THE GATE, however its precisely because they know the Gilder track record. Its not Gilder's picks per se that count as much as his way of thinking, the connections between the various technologies. Personally I believe last fall was the time to invest in optical switching, fiber, "last mile" and so forth. It makes more sense (to me at least), to try to SEE the wave coming, than merely invest on top of the wave. Accordingly, I moved primarily into biotechs when they hit bottom in April, however I still watch closely Gilder's thinking closely both in here and on the Gildertech site, picking up telecosmic-like stocks, as opportunities present themselves. Gilder's track record has been quite good the last 5 yrs, and few brainstorm these things like he does.

To: The Phoenix who wrote (4809)	9/9/2000 3:30:39 AM
From: Dan B.	Respond to of 5853

I gather you have a difference of opinion with Mr. Gilder. That is neither here nor there and it certainly isn't evidence of charlatanism, not even if you are right and he is wrong. One of George's stories involves conversation with Bill Gates about 5 years ago(longer?). As I recall it, Gilder said glorious Broadband was 5 years off...while Gates said more like 20 or more. If you ask me, the reality appears to be in-between, or perhaps closer to Gates prediction. But there are many ways of judging this(like waiting, for one), and I leave it up to all concerned to interpret the truth of the matter when the time comes(if it hasn't already). For the record, you can read Mr. Gilder himself being quite reasonable concerning the future of Cisco, i.e. he expects it to go on and on, not unlike the energizer bunny. His downside prognosis for Cisco is something he's fairly confident of, but it is a matter of degree not total demise, and events yet to play out, as he acknowledges, if you ask me. I wanna know what in your view is "myopic" about envisioning routers evolving as he suggests they will? Do you imagine Cisco's systems will/must be invincibly profitable and immune to the efforts of others or the effects of technology advancements? If so, why? Personally, I fault George for saying he lets the marketing people throw in the dramatic headlines and teasers(which he doesn't write, and as if it's against his better judgement- and I think it is). But maybe I should lighten up over this matter since the bottom line is I know what I'm reading, I know who can be humorous and also wrong, I learn from his efforts, and I like it. He has a way of expressing an opposing point of view so that you feel you can understand and believe it well, just as surely as he writes persuasively to tear that very view apart in the end. And so he is rare- and valued for his thoughts, guts, and effort- and yes, his honesty in reporting the ideas held by many important players. Market followers who now often jump on his reco's make him appear to be correct before the technological stories have yet played themselves out. I think this year brought many of his high flyers back to earth....to price points indicating far less steep flight paths up, if you will. As it stands, he's still way up, and a large series of surprising company failures would have to take place for anyone who's bought many Gilder reco's more than a year stale to find themselves in the red. It's not the quite real lemming effect that first begot the gains in his stocks, clearly not. It was company specific performance in the real world that brought his influence to this recent point of likely unreasonable weight. Your response was classic fair warning in a sheep and wolf scenario...it's just that the facts of the man's history, don't resemble the awfully dreadful scenario you paint, IMO- not even close- and I think he deserves credit beyond what you are seemingly aware of. MOMO novices(like me) and experts alike may/will fall into many traps with or without the man- as this years tech/internet market should provide ample evidence of. I suspect the man truly works hard to understand much...and he could misunderstand much just the same...but if you are so sure his understanding today is so sorely lacking, by all means, move on to the "serious" discussion- I'll enjoy the rebuttal to Gilder I'd gather you will offer. Dan B